Armenia: Self-proclaimed Nagorno-Karabakh authorities confirm Azeri capture of Shusha November 9 /update 28

Event

Self-proclaimed authorities in Nagorno-Karabakh on Monday, November 9, confirmed the capture of the town of Shusha by Azeri forces which the Azeri government claimed had occurred on Sunday, November 8. Azeri troops took the town from Armenian-backed forces following heavy fighting leaving them in possession of the region's second city, and in a position overlooking the regional capital, Stepanakert, located less than 5km (3mi) away. Reports suggest that Azeri forces are now advancing towards Stepanakert. The Armenian government has denied the extent of Azeri gains in the area and stated that fighting was still occurring around Shusha on Monday.

The defense minister of the self-proclaimed Republic of Artsakh stated on Monday that an additional 44 of its fighters had been killed, bringing the total death toll among its forces to 1221 since September. The Azeri government has not disclosed any numbers regarding military casualties. Casualties are believed to be higher than those officially stated with Russian President Vladimir Putin claiming on October 22 that over 5000 people had lost their lives.

Further clashes in and around the Nagorno-Karabakh region are highly likely over the near term. Clashes along the length of the Armenian-Azerbaijani border outside the Nagorno-Karabakh region cannot be ruled out. A heightened security presence and disruptions to transportation are expected.

Context

The latest round of hostilities erupted on September 27, when Azerbaijani forces reportedly carried out strikes on settlements in the Nagorno-Karabakh region, including the regional capital Stepanakert. Following retaliatory attacks by separatist forces, Azerbaijan launched what it claimed to be a 'counter-offensive' in response. Both Armenia and Azerbaijan made extensive use of heavy weapons during the clashes, including artillery and loitering munitions, and released footage claiming to show the destruction of enemy armored vehicles and installations. A state of war, martial law, and mobilization were declared in Armenia, Azerbaijan, and the self-proclaimed Republic of Artsakh. Over 400 people, including civilians, have been killed since the renewed outbreak of hostilities. In addition to fighting along the Line of Contact, cities in Nagorno-Karabakh and outside of the conflict zone have been targeted in artillery strikes including Stepanakert, Ganja, Barda, Beylagan, Terter, and Mingecevir.

On October 10, both sides agreed to a ceasefire to allow for the exchange of prisoners and the recovery of the bodies of those killed in the conflict and the cessation of hostilities will be followed up with further talks aimed at reaching a settlement regarding the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute. Despite this, both sides have accused each other of violating the ceasefire. On Saturday, October 17, Azeri authorities stated that at least 12 people had been killed and 40 others wounded in rocket strikes which targeted the city of Ganja. Both sides later agreed to a second ceasefire following consultations with the Russian government.

Armenia and neighboring Azerbaijan have a long-standing dispute over the possession of Nagorno-Karabakh, home to some 150,000 inhabitants (mostly ethnic Armenians) and located in the west of Azerbaijan. This issue has fuelled tensions between the two countries since 1988; with some 30,000 people being killed in fighting from 1990 to 1994. The two countries declared another ceasefire in April 2016 after the region experienced four days of violent clashes that left hundreds dead.

Tensions between the two countries remain high and each side frequently accuses the other of violating the ceasefire agreement. 

Advice

Western governments generally advise their citizens against all travel to Nagorno-Karabakh and the Azerbaijan-Armenia border. Those in Armenia are advised to monitor developments and adhere to instructions issued by local authorities and their home governments.