CAR: Civil unrest and election gatherings possible ahead of and following Dec. 27 elections

Event

Election-related gatherings, unrest, and bouts of violence are possible across Central African Republic (CAR) in the run-up to and immediately following the nation's Dec. 27 presidential and legislative elections. The UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in CAR (MINUSCA) will deploy additional security personnel to support government forces as a precaution. An increased security force presence has been registered in the capital Bangui, as of Dec. 8. Heightened security measures are also likely in other large cities and urban centers in the weeks ahead.

Attacks by gunmen in Bangui and other cities or villages outside the capital may occur as there is a growing indication that certain rival armed factions could seek to derail the electoral process. Related election-related gatherings and protests may occur. Clashes between demonstrators and security personnel, as well as among rival groups of activists, are possible. Acts of targeted violence against specific individuals or small groups are also possible at campaign rallies. Police will almost certainly respond swiftly to any violent incidents that may materialize. Sustained violence could prompt authorities to impose certain restrictions, such as curfews or road closures. Significant logistical challenges will also complicate the election and could lead to contested results. Campaigning has been very limited or nonexistent in most places, as of Dec. 8. If fraud and irregularities are reported, some candidates will probably reject the results, complicating efforts to restore political stability.

Tensions will likely persist after the results are announced, and ahead of the second round of polls on Feb. 14, 2021, which will be held if no candidate obtains a majority in the first round of presidential polling. The elections could be postponed at short notice, especially if the security situation deteriorates significantly ahead of Dec. 27, or authorities are unable to reach all parts of the country to distribute voting materials.

Context

The general election will take place amid increased security concerns. The Retour, Reclamation and Rehabilitation (3R) militia led by Abass Sidiki withdrew from the 2019 peace accord in June and has repeatedly threatened to disrupt the election. A report submitted to the UN Human Rights Council indicates that armed groups deliberately blocked the voter registration in recent months. Political tensions are also currently elevated after the constitutional court invalidated 78 candidates who had applied to stand in legislative elections, including former leader Francois Bozize, who returned to CAR in late 2019 after six years in exile.

The overall security situation is extremely poor; the level of violent fighting has steadily increased in parts of the country since the 2019 peace accord, particularly in the north-western CAR. Security conditions were relatively stable in the capital Bangui for most of 2020, but the situation remains fragile and could deteriorate at any time. Outside Bangui, militias have continued to assert control by setting up roadblocks and committing acts of violence that have exacerbated ethnic tensions.

Advice

Liaise with trusted in-country contacts and monitor the situation closely. Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation, if operating in CAR through election day. Avoid all protests, election-related gatherings, or areas where violence has recently occurred. Plan for potential ground travel or business disruptions. Do not drive through protester roadblocks. Reconfirm all business appointments. Heed the instructions of local security personnel. Plan for potential freight transport delays and consider alternative routes through end-December. Consider postponing all travel outside the capital if operating in the country.