CAR: Electoral commission pronounces President Faustin-Archange Touadera winner of Dec. 27 election Jan. 4 /update 1

Event

Election-related gatherings, unrest, and sporadic violence are possible across the Central African Republic (CAR) following the electoral commission's announcement that President Faustin-Archange Touadera has won the nation's Dec. 27 presidential elections.

Attacks by gunmen in Bangui and other cities or villages outside the capital may occur as there is a growing indication that certain rival armed factions could seek to derail the political process. Related election-related gatherings and protests may occur. Clashes between demonstrators and security personnel, as well as among rival groups of activists, are possible. Police will almost certainly respond swiftly to any violent incidents that may materialize. Sustained violence could prompt authorities to impose certain restrictions, such as curfews or road closures. If fraud and irregularities are alleged, some candidates will probably reject the results, complicating efforts to restore political stability.

Context

The general election took place amid increased security concerns. A report submitted to the UN Human Rights Council indicates that armed groups deliberately blocked the voter registration in recent months. Political tensions are also currently elevated after the constitutional court invalidated 78 candidates who had applied to stand in legislative elections, including former leader Francois Bozize, who returned to CAR in late 2019 after six years in exile.

The overall security situation is extremely poor; the level of violent fighting has steadily increased in parts of the country since the 2019 peace accord, particularly in the northwestern CAR. Security conditions were relatively stable in the capital Bangui for most of 2020, but the situation remains fragile and could deteriorate at any time. Outside Bangui, militias have continued to assert control by setting up roadblocks and committing acts of violence that have exacerbated ethnic tensions.

Advice

Liaise with trusted in-country contacts and monitor the situation closely. Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation, if operating in CAR through mid January. Avoid all protests, election-related gatherings, or areas where violence has recently occurred. Plan for potential ground travel or business disruptions. Do not drive through protester roadblocks. Reconfirm all business appointments. Heed the instructions of local security personnel. Consider postponing all travel outside the capital if operating in the country.