Mozambique: Insecurity likely to persist in Cabo Delgado Province through early 2021 /update 1

Event

Militant attacks by Ansar al-Sunna insurgents (also referred to by locals as Al-Shabaab) in Mozambique's gas-rich northern Cabo Delgado Province will almost certainly continue through at least early 2021. The coastal Palma, Mocimboa da Praia, and Macomia districts are likely to remain the focus of insurgent activity. Insurgents have repeatedly targeted villages and small towns, remote government and administrative buildings, security checkpoints, and road networks. The group has shifted tactics in recent months, increasing the frequency of attacks on larger urban areas. Incidents in far southern Tanzania are also likely to persist.

Counter-insurgency operations by Mozambique Defence Armed Forces (FADM) remain ongoing in Cabo Delgado and the insecurity has prompted some companies to downsize operations in the area. Recent attacks on larger coastal towns, including Mocimboa da Praia and Quissanga, signify an increased militant intent and capability to attack larger and more complex targets, as well as confidence in their ability to gain and hold territory. Onshore and offshore oil and gas facilities have government protection and support by private security forces. A conventional military assault on the provincial capital, Pemba, is unlikely due to the increased security force presence and limited road access to the port city due to its peninsular location in Pemba Bay.

Recent attacks on larger coastal towns, including Mocimboa da Praia and Quissanga, signify an increased militant intent and capability to attack larger and more complex targets, as well as confidence in their ability to gain and hold territory. Despite this, no conventional military attacks have been carried out against facilities linked to natural gas exploitation in the area, mainly in the Afungi Peninsula. Onshore and offshore oil and gas facilities have government protection and support by private security forces. A conventional military assault on the provincial capital, Pemba, is unlikely due to the increased security force presence and limited road access to the port city due to its peninsular location in Pemba Bay.

The threat of attacks remains elevated in rural and coastal areas of Cabo Delgado and along roads and highways throughout the province targeting local communities and security forces. While most attacks in 2019 and 2020 occurred in the Palma, Mocimboa da Praia, and Macomia districts, interior attacks also occur in Nangade, Muidumbe, Meluco, Ancuabe, and Quissanga districts. The threat to interests in southern Tanzania will remain elevated through early 2021. Insurgents have conducted cross-border attacks into Tanzania; at least 20 civilians and two soldiers were killed in Kitaya, Tanzania, Oct. 14. Several vehicles and buildings were subject to arson attacks. Wilayat Wasat Afriqiyya claimed responsibility for the attack. Militants conducted a previous attack on Tanzanian territory in November 2019, killing five people.

Most attacks since 2017 are carried out with small arms; however, insurgents have reportedly captured heavy weaponry following assaults on army camps and urban centers since 2019. The group is not known to employ explosive devices, such as landmines, rocket-propelled grenades, and improvised explosive devices (IED); however, increased collaboration with the Islamic State (IS) could result in Ansar al-Sunna being trained in the use of explosive weapons in the future.

Insurgents based in Mozambique could aspire to conduct targeted attacks and kidnappings against foreign nationals; however, they have not yet demonstrated clear intent and capability for such operations. The possibility of this group adding kidnapping to its modus operandi cannot be entirely discounted, especially given the increased pool of potential victims and foreign investment in the regions that the extractive industry is likely to bring, and the prevalence of kidnapping as a tool of Islamist extremist militant groups elsewhere in the wider region.

Even if Ansar-al-Sunna does not turn to kidnapping, the insecurity resulting from its armed activities in certain areas of Cabo Delgado, the anticipated security force response to this, coupled with the growth in investment in the extractive industry in the province, could result in increased criminal kidnapping activity in the northeast. Criminal entities are likely to take advantage of the volatile security environment to engage in targeted kidnappings for financial gain.

Context

Ansar al-Sunna is a domestic Islamist group with suspected links to other East African terrorist groups. The group reportedly pledged allegiance to the IS in July 2019; this was preceded by IS announcing a new branch, Central Africa Province (Wilayat Wasat Afriqiyya), in April 2019. Ansar al-Sunna appears to be comprised of local cells of several dozen men, motivated by a mix of radical Islamist ideology, criminality, and economic grievances. The group appears to be financed through smuggling networks involving illegal cross-border trade in heroin, ivory, precious stones, timber, and human trafficking. Criminal activity has proliferated in the absence of reliable security provisions in northern Mozambique. The group's self-reliance may contribute to the difficulty the government has had in tracking down and identifying its support networks; however, the group may be receiving support from other regional militant groups. The extent of support from IS is unclear. Meanwhile, insurgents have increased their recruitment drive within Cabo Delgado Province, offering stipends to fighters, and have reportedly begun recruiting fighters in Nampula Province, south of Cabo Delgado.

Advice

Limit exposure to possible targets, including security posts, government buildings, and rural locales. Strictly observe curfews and other emergency restrictions. Maintain a low profile when possible, and limit time spent in rural areas and locations without hard security. Seek guidance on secure transportation options and travel in a guarded convoy if ground movements are unavoidable; complete all travel well in advance of nightfall. Remain vigilant and be prepared for the sudden and rapid deterioration of the security environment. Register and maintain contact with your diplomatic mission. Obtain a satellite phone for emergency use. Seek information on the route and destination security conditions before conducting ground movements. Travel with a well-armed escort is advised in Cabo Delgado Province.