Fiji, Tonga: Tropical Cyclone 16P approaching Vanua Levu island; landfall likely Feb. 1

Event

Tropical Cyclone 16P has formed north of Fiji and is tracking southwards Jan. 31. As of 1800 FJT, the system's center of circulation is approximately 800 km (497 miles) northwest of Suva, Fiji. Forecast models indicate that the storm will retain its strength as a Category 1 Tropical Cyclone on approach to Fiji. Landfall is forecast on Vanua Levu island Feb. 1. The cyclone follows shortly after Tropical Cyclone Ana passed over Viti Levu Island, earlier Jan. 31. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur over the coming days.

Government Advisories
The Fiji Meteorological Service maintains warnings for Tropical Cyclone Ana; however, in a statement 1400 Jan. 31 it indicated that it was still monitoring the progression of 16P. Authorities will likely issue new warnings in the coming hours as 16P approaches the country.

Hazardous Conditions
16P will likely bring additional heavy rainfall and strong winds to the affected areas through Feb. 3. Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near streams, creeks, and rivers, as well as in urban areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream of large reservoirs could experience flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Flooding could isolate some communities for several days. In addition to the heavy rain, flooding, and storm surge, 16P is likely to produce further damaging wind gusts. Widespread and prolonged power outages due to uprooted trees and toppled utility lines are likely.

Transport
Inclement weather associated with 16P and Ana could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions through at least Feb. 3. Floodwaters and debris flows may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Areal flooding in urban locations could also result in severe traffic congestion, while strong winds will pose a hazard to high-profile vehicles. Heavy rain and low visibility may trigger flight disruptions at airports, including Suva's Nadi International Airport (NAN). Disruptions caused by inclement weather and resultant hazards, such as flooding, could persist well after conditions have improved. If there is severe damage to infrastructure, repair or reconstruction efforts may exacerbate residual disruptions.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed all evacuation orders, if issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the high potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks. Keep any necessary medications in a waterproof container.

Plan accordingly for commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Fiji Meteorological Service Facebook
Energy Fiji Limited Facebook
Water Authority of Fiji Facebook
Tonga Meteorological Services