North Korea: Military launches two projectiles into the East Sea the morning of March 25

Event

North Korea fired two projectiles into the East Sea (Sea of Japan) the morning of March 25. According to South Korean military officials, North Korean personnel fired the projectiles from South Hamgyong Province. The exact flight path and distance remain unclear, but Japanese authorities confirmed the suspected missiles did not enter its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). There were no reports of damage, injuries, or transport disruptions following the launches.

Context

The projectile launches are the second to occur within a week, after North Korea reportedly fired cruise missiles off its western coast March 21. The launches come amid ongoing US-South Korea joint military drills, which Pyongyang has long condemned as a provocation. South Korean and Japanese authorities both suspect the munitions were short-range ballistic missiles (SRBM), though analysis is ongoing. North Korea has previously fired SRBMs from South Hamgyong Province. If confirmed, a ballistic missile launch would violate long-standing UN Security Council resolutions. North Korea last fired a ballistic missile in March 2020. Pyongyang has publicly called on the US to halt its hostile actions against the country, and North Korea likely is using the missile tests to gauge the US response. The administration of US President Joseph Biden is undergoing a North Korea policy review and intends to meet with Japanese and South Korean leaders for a second time by the end of March. Additional projectile launches are possible during this period.

While regional tensions have eased significantly since early 2018, the fundamental dynamics of the standoff on the Korean Peninsula remain largely unaltered. North Korea controls an arsenal of nuclear devices and long-range missiles, despite the UN sanctions against the weapons programs. Pyongyang has maintained a self-imposed ban on long-range ballistic missile and nuclear weapon testing, but authorities have threatened to resume both unless governments ease economic sanctions against the country. In addition to multilateral sanctions approved by the UN, the US has imposed unilateral economic and political sanctions against Pyongyang. The US generally downplayed the importance of the cruise missile firing and could pursue a similar strategy for the latest projectile launches. Both North Korea and the US are highly likely to avoid any actions that could escalate into a full-scale conflict.