Lebanon: Heightened security likely in Beirut over coming hours after armed clashes kill six people, wound dozens of others Oct. 14 /update 2

Event

Heightened security measures are likely in Beirut over the coming hours after armed clashes centered in the city's Tayouneh neighborhood killed six people and wounded at least 32 others Oct. 14. The clashes represented some of the worst sectarian violence to affect Lebanon in years, with gunfire between Shi'a and Christian fighters lasting for several hours until the early evening, even following the deployment of soldiers to affected areas. The Lebanese army deployed to the Tayouneh, Badaro, Cheyah, and Ain al-Rameneh areas to restore calm; security forces notably evacuated residents from Tayouneh after the fighting broke out.

Prime Minister Najib Mikati has called for a day of mourning, ordering all government buildings and schools to close Oct. 15. Associated public-service and business disruptions are likely during the mourning period.

Road closures and personnel and vehicle checks are also likely in Beirut through at least Oct. 15. Officials may impose temporary and localized movement restrictions in case of further security operations. Additional, similar clashes are possible in Beirut and elsewhere in Lebanon over the coming days amid high prevailing sectarian tensions.

Context

The identities of those who fired the first shots in the Oct. 14 Beirut clashes are not clear. The initial gunfire, apparently coming from snipers perched on rooftops, came shortly after a protest organized by the Iran-backed Hizballah and allied Shi'a Amal Movement began; demonstrators called for the resignation of Judge Tarek Bitar, who is leading the investigation into the August 2020 Beirut port explosion.

Security forces have arrested at least nine people involved in the Oct. 14 fighting. Hizballah and the Amal Movement have accused the Lebanese Forces, a rival Christian political party, of coordinating the sniper attacks that allegedly instigated the clashes; the Lebanese Forces have denied the accusation, calling for an investigation into the incident and rather blaming the violence on "uncontrolled and widespread weapons that threaten citizens in every time and place," alluding to Hizballah's large arsenal of weaponry.

The clashes in the capital notably come amid escalating tensions over the August 2020 Beirut port explosion probe, after two former ministers' legal complaint against Bitar effectively suspended the investigation. Hizballah leader Hassan Nasrallah has accused Bitar of "politically targeting" officials in the investigation, while supporters of the probe have claimed that the country's political elite are attempting to evade justice for the blast, which killed more than 200 people and wounded thousands of others.

Meanwhile, the Oct. 14 Beirut clashes and the simmering political conflict over the port blast investigation both distract from PM Mikati's stated focus on economic recovery, predicated on reviving needed talks with the International Monetary Fund (I.M.F.). Mikati claimed Oct. 14 that his cabinet would provide necessary financial data to the I.M.F. "in the coming days" as he seeks to initiate the process of pulling the country out of one of the modern era's worst economic depressions, which threatens increasingly severe socioeconomic hardship and civil unrest.

Advice

Defer nonessential travel in the affected areas of Beirut through at least Oct. 15. Maintain heightened vigilance if operating in the capital over the coming days. To the extent possible, avoid government buildings, security installations, and any concentrations of armed fighters due to the potential for violence.