Ethiopia: Security situation likely to remain volatile in Tigray region at least through mid-November /update 2

Event

The security situation in the Tigray Region will likely remain volatile through at least mid- November, amid ongoing hostilities between rebels from the Tigray Defense Force (TDF), formerly known as the Tigray Peoples’ Liberation Front (TPLF), and troops of the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) supported by regional militias.

Since mid-October, hostilities between TDF and ENDF and its allies have intensified on southern and eastern fronts. Violence has spilled over into the neighboring Afar and Amhara regions as TDF forces reportedly controlled Chifra (Afar) and Wuchale, Bistima, Hayk, and Marye (Amhara) moving towards the cities of Dessie and Kombolcha. TDF's advancement into areas in Afar is due to the strategic importance of transport links through the region that connects Ethiopia with Djibouti.

Despite the TDF's advancement into Amhara and Afar regions, the ENDF remains in control of Debre Debre Zebit, Nefas Memucha, Gashena, and Kimer Dingay in Amhara Region. Additionally, since mid-October, the ENDF also increased aerial and ground bombardments against TDF's position and conducted several airstrikes in Tigray's capital, Mekelle, targetting TDF-affiliated facilities. A recent Oct. 20 strike reportedly killed at least seven people and injured several others.

Outside the conflict zone, profiling and detentions of ethnic-Tigrayans have continued in urban centers outside Tigray, including Addis Ababa. Anti-Western sentiment has also reportedly increased due to the perceived negative influence of European countries and the US in the conflict. Incidents targeting foreign nationals have, however, not been reported.

Military confrontation will likely intensify in the coming weeks as ENDF forces launch counter-offensive operations against TDF. Confrontations are likely to occur in the Afar and Amhara regions bordering Tigray, where the TDF reportedly maintains a high presence. The ENDF is likely to conduct further airstrikes against TDF's position in Mekelle and other urban centers. The TDF will likely attempt to advance deeper into Afar and Amhara regions targeting major cities. A heightened military presence in the Afar and Amhara regions is expected in the coming weeks, along with potential enhanced security measures enacted in major cities and towns, including curfews, roadblocks, states of emergency, movement restrictions, and disruptions of communication and internet services. Acts of civil unrest or large celebratory gatherings are possible in response to any battlefield successes or setbacks.

Advice

Consider deferring travel to the Tigray Region and surrounding areas impacted by fighting until the situation stabilizes. Avoid all military installations, administrative buildings, and strategic infrastructure that may be targeted for attack, including power stations and media, communications, and transport facilities. Persons in Tigray should liaise with trusted contacts. Avoid all demonstrations, crowds, and concentrations of security personnel. Immediately depart the area if violence occurs or crowds form; take shelter in a secure building. Confirm routes, road access conditions, and destination security before conducting ground movements and when planning freight shipments. If travel is unavoidable, do so in convoy and allow additional time to reach destinations due to potential roadblocks. Obtain satellite phones for emergency use; SMS messages are usually more reliable than calls when cellular networks are restricted. Register and maintain contact with your diplomatic mission.