North Korea: Military launches projectile into the East Sea early Jan. 11

Event

Reports indicate that North Korea fired an unidentified projectile into the East Sea (Sea of Japan) the morning of Jan. 11. The exact flight path and distance remain unclear, but officials claim the projectile may have been a ballistic missile. There were no reports of damage, injuries, or transport disruptions following the launch.

Context

The latest projectile firing is the second in a week following an earlier launch Jan. 5. The incident is unlikely to increase tensions significantly, with the timing of the test in line with military drills typically conducted during winter as well as North Korean leader Kim Jong Un's vow to bolster its military capabilities in 2022. Despite attempts at jumpstarting diplomacy, the fundamental dynamics of the standoff on the Korean Peninsula remain largely unaltered, as North Korea has previously stated it will only give up its nuclear weapons in exchange for concrete moves to reduce perceived US threats against it. Both sides are highly likely to avoid any actions that could escalate into a full-scale conflict. Nevertheless, further launches remain possible in the lead-up to the South Korean presidential elections in March.