India: Security measures for Republic Day to prompt disruptions through Jan. 26, especially in Delhi

Event

Security personnel are on high alert in India for the nation’s Jan. 26 Republic Day observance. Officials have issued a terrorism warning for parts of the country, including Delhi. Authorities have enhanced security measures in Delhi as well as cities in Goa, Manipur, Punjab, Uttarakhand, and Uttar Pradesh, where assembly elections will occur from Feb. 10. Officials are tightening security at high-risk locations, including markets, railway stations, bus stands, airports, religious establishments, and other crowded sites. Additional terror warnings, bomb threats, and multiple security scares are likely in the run-up to and during Republic Day. Security forces could conduct preemptive raids to arrest suspected extremists in possession of weapons and/or explosives in various cities and towns. Security measures may prompt localized transport and commercial disruptions near sensitive sites.

The capital city, Delhi, is the largest and most heavily guarded holiday event site - a large-scale parade that showcases the country's military strength and cultural diversity. Smaller ceremonies occur in state capitals and district headquarters throughout the country. Major traffic disruptions will occur around Republic Day venues, especially in urban centers. Maoist rebels (also known as Naxalites) and various separatist political and militant groups typically call for boycotts of ceremonies and/or observe bandhs (shutdown strikes) on Republic Day to draw attention to their grievances. Farmer groups and other organizations are likely to organize street marches and public rallies, mainly outside government buildings in state capitals; some of these protests may turn violent.

Regional Security Considerations

National Capital Region
The annual Republic Day parade in Delhi is a potential terror target. Authorities will seal off roads and deploy thousands of security personnel to protect the numerous dignitaries and tens of thousands of spectators who watch the 8-km (5-mile) procession between Rashtrapati Bhavan (presidential residence) and Lal Qila (Red Fort) via India Gate. Road closures, vehicle searches, and other increased security measures will be imposed at government buildings, markets, transport centers, and other crowded sites throughout the metropolitan area. Public transport services such as buses and Metro rails typically face diversions and curtailment throughout Jan. 26.

Farmer unions held violent protests seeking the withdrawal of agricultural laws during last year's events; leaders have warned of additional demonstrations over remaining demands this year. Protests may involve hundreds to a few thousand people. Police will likely attempt to block or disperse any gatherings that occur, potentially resulting in violence. Shipping and transport delays are also possible along all major highways connecting Delhi to neighboring states, especially along sections in the National Capital Region comprising Delhi and parts of Haryana, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh states.

Jammu and Kashmir Union Territory
Separatist militancy is an ongoing concern in parts of Jammu and Kashmir. Despite tight security in the region, violence could intensify ahead of and during Republic Day. Kashmiri separatist organizations will almost certainly call for a complete shutdown strike in the Kashmir Valley on Jan. 26. Violent anti-India protests are possible in Srinagar and main towns in the region. Terrorist attacks - including improvised explosive device (IED) or vehicle-borne IED (VBIED) bombings, grenade, and/or suicide attacks - may occur, particularly in the Muslim-dominated Kashmir Valley.

Northeast India
Militant groups typically boycott Republic Day celebrations and call for shutdown strikes in the region; varied participation is likely. In some areas, business and transportation disruptions may occur; urban localities are usually the least affected. Multiple ethnic and political groups regularly stage protests and strikes over their demands, and violent civil unrest is possible around the national holiday. Bombings, grenade attacks, and shootings are possible, especially in Assam, Manipur, Nagaland, and Meghalaya states.

Maoist-Affected States
An upsurge in violence is probable in areas affected by Maoist insurgencies. Ambushes targeting security personnel and attacks on power, mining, and rail infrastructure may occur. These incidents are most likely to occur in rural parts of Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, and Bihar states.

Advice

Stay away from all protests. Arrive at airports earlier than normal due to stringent security checks of passengers and baggage. Confirm train reservations; authorities may cancel some regional and long-distance services due to security concerns, particularly in northern and northeastern India. Plan accordingly for potential commercial and transport disruptions due to bomb threats and other security scares. Consider restricting movements near government, police, and military installations, as well as large concentrations of security forces, transport hubs, and crowded public venues in Kashmir, far northeast India, and districts with known presence of Maoist guerrillas.