North Korea: Military launches two ballistic missiles into the East Sea the morning of Jan. 17 /update 1

Event

According to updated reports from South Korean military officials, North Korea fired two ballistic missiles from Pyongyang's Sunan International Airport (FNJ) into the East Sea (Sea of Japan) the morning of Jan. 17. The exact flight path and distance remain unclear. There were no reports of damage, injuries, or transport disruptions following the launch.

Context

The latest firing is the fourth following three earlier ballistic missile launches Jan. 5, 11, and 14 and North Korea's recent warnings of stronger action in response to fresh US sanctions against the country. Nevertheless, the incident is unlikely to increase tensions significantly. Despite attempts at jumpstarting diplomacy, the fundamental dynamics of the standoff on the Korean Peninsula remain largely unaltered, as North Korea has previously stated it will only give up its nuclear weapons in exchange for concrete moves to reduce perceived US threats against it. Both sides are highly likely to avoid any actions that could escalate into a full-scale conflict. The timing of the tests is also in line with military drills typically conducted during winter, as well as North Korean leader Kim Jong Un's vow to bolster its military capabilities in 2022. Further launches remain possible in the coming weeks ahead of the South Korean presidential elections in March or if the US places additional penalties on North Korea.