07 Mar 2022 | 03:43 PM UTC
Madagascar: Tropical depression forecast to bring adverse weather across northern regions through at least March 10
Adverse weather associated with tropical depression forecast across northern Madagascar through March 10. Possible flooding and disruptions.
Event
A tropical depression in the Indian Ocean is forecast to cross northern Madagascar March 8-9, bringing heavy rainfall, strong winds, and rough seas to northern regions of the country through at least March 10. As of 15:00 EAT March 7, the center of the storm system was located approximately 196 km (122 miles) east-northeast of Cap Masoala in Sava Region. Forecast models indicate the system will track in a southwestward direction and make landfall on the coast of either Sava or Analanjirofo region early March 8. Heavy rainfall is forecast to impact the coastal areas of Analanjirofo, Atsinanana, and Sava regions from late March 7. The rainfall will extend inland as the system tracks over northern regions March 8-9 before emerging in the Mozambique Channel late March 9. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur in the coming days.
As of March 7, the Madagascar General Directorate of Meteorology has issued the following cyclone warnings:
Yellow threat alert (the middle level on a three-tier scale): Analanjirofo and Sava regions.
Green alert warning: Alaotra Mangoro Region; Bealanana, Befandriana North, and Madritsara districts in Sofia Region; and Brickaville, Manampotsy, Toamasina I-II, and Vatomandry districts in Atsinanana Region.
Yellow heavy rain warnings have also been issued in parts of northeastern Madagascar outside of the cyclone warning zone, including Boeny and Sofia regions and in the Sambirnao River area in Diana Region. Red strong wind warnings have been issued across the northeast coast, and yellow warnings have been issued for the northwest coast.
Authorities will likely issue new warnings or update existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days.
Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.
The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at airports in the affected area and temporary closures of ports are also possible.
Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.
Advice
Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.
Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.
