Mali: Increased militant activity in Gao and Menaka regions as of March 28

Event

Islamic State (IS)-aligned groups have increased operations targeting security forces, self-defense groups, and civilians in Gao and Menaka regions, specifically in the vicinity of the Ansongo-Menaka natural reserve, as of March 28. The Ansongo-Menaka natural reserve serves as a militant stronghold. Reports indicate that an uptick in attacks has been recorded since the beginning of March. Casualty figures are unclear and estimated in the low hundreds within a one-month period. French officials also announced March 25 that a drone strike killed at least 15 militants affiliated with the Islamic State in Greater Sahara (ISGS) traveling towards Menaka. As a result of the violence, several thousand residents have fled the region to neighboring Niger. The rising number of attacks coincides with recent IS claims of responsibility. While officials refer to IS in Mali as ISGS, IS announced March 22 that it's Sahel Province attacked Malian forces near Gao that day.

Further attacks are likely in the near term. Officials could impose drastic security measures if the situation further deteriorates. Protests in response to the pervasive insecurity remain possible.

Context

The increased militant activity comes amid the withdrawal of French troops operating in Mali since 2013, after a breakdown in relations with Mali's ruling military junta. The security dynamic following the French withdrawal may provide more space for regional militants to conduct attacks, hurting the already poor security environment.

Insecurity is prevalent across the country. Islamist militants affiliated with IS or Al-Qaeda groups conduct attacks on a regular basis. Despite continued security operations, armed groups continue to demonstrate a capability to strike civilians and security forces. The security situation is further undermined by local rivalries and sporadic communal violence and lawlessness, and banditry.

Advice

Heed all official directives. Exercise a high degree of vigilance due to the threat of violence. Conduct travel during daylight hours with a security escort and only following a review of the route. Liaise with trusted contacts and confirm the viability of conducting operations in the region. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations.