Mozambique Channel: Severe Tropical Storm Jasmine tracking south-southeastward in the Mozambique Channel early April 26 /update 2

Event

Severe Tropical Storm Jasmine is tracking south-southeastward in the Mozambique Channel April 26. As of 06:00 EAT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 141 km (87 miles) east-southeast of Europa Island. Forecast models indicate the system will weaken into a moderate tropical storm before making landfall over central Atsimo-Andrefana Region the evening of Arpil 26. Upon making landfall, the storm system is forecast to weaken to a zone of disturbed weather as it tracks east-southeastward and dissipates over far eastern Atsimo-Andrefana Region early April 27. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur in the coming days.

As of early April 26, the Madagascar General Directorate of Meteorology has issued yellow cyclone alerts (the second level on a three-tier scale) for Betioky, Morombe, Sakaraha, and Toliara 1-2 districts. Green cyclone alerts are in place for Ampanihy, Ankazoabo, Benenitra, Manja, and Morondava districts. Weather conditions are likely to deteriorate in the southwestern regions from noon of April 26 and rough seas are forecast along the western and southern coasts. Authorities will likely publish new advisories or update existing alerts throughout the system's progression in the coming days.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible. The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at airports in the region, such as Morombe Airport (MXM), and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Madagascar General Directorate of Meteorology (French)