03 Jun 2022 | 03:42 AM UTC
Gulf of Mexico: Potential TC One has formed and is tracking north over Gulf of Mexico late June 2
Potential TC One tracking north over Gulf of Mexico late June 2. Landfall likely over southern Florida, US the afternoon of June 4.
Event
Potential Tropical Cyclone One has formed from the remnants of Hurricane Agatha and is tracking north over the Gulf of Mexico late June 2. As of 22:00 CDT, the system's center of circulation was approximately 155 km (95 miles) north-northwest of Cozumel, Mexico. Forecast models indicate that the storm will gradually strengthen as it turns to track northeastward before making landfall as a tropical storm over Pine Island then Cape Coral City in Florida, US, the afternoon of June 4. The storm is forecast to maintain its strength as it tracks northeastward across southern Florida before emerging over the Atlantic Ocean late June 4, passing well north of Bermuda June 7. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days.
As of late June 2, the following watches and warnings are in place:
Tropical Storm Warning: The Florida Keys including the Dry Tortugas, Florida Bay, and the west coast of Florida south of Englewood to Card Sound Bridge.
Tropical Storm Watch: The west coast of Florida from south of the middle of Longboat Key to Englewood, the east coast of Florida south of the Volusia-Brevard county line to
Card Sound Bridge, Lake Okeechobee, northwestern Bahamas, and the Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, Havana, Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth.
The US Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has issued a "Moderate Risk" (level 3 on a four-tier scale) for excessive rainfall for portions of South Florida June 3, where the heaviest rainfall is forecast. A "Slight Risk" for excessive rainfall is in place for the rest of southern Florida June 3-4. Officials could update and possibly extend the coverage of the relevant weather alerts over the coming days.
Heavy rainfall is forecast over the eastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba through June 3 as well as over South Florida and the Keys in the US June 3-4. Forecast models indicate rainfall of 15-25 cm (6-10 inches) over western Cuba, 10-20 cm (4-8 inches) over South Florida including the Keys, and 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) over the eastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and the Cayman Islands. Authorities have warned that the storm surge combined with the tides could flood normally dry areas near the coast. The water could reach 30-90 cm (1-3 feet) from Marco Island, Florida to Card Sound Bridge and 30-60 cm (1-2 feet) at Charlotte Harbor, Florida Keys, Dry Tortugas, and from the middle of Longboat Key to Marco Island in Florida. Isolated tornadoes are possible over south Florida from the evening of June 3 through June 4.
Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.
The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.
Advice
Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.
Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.
