Philippine Sea: Super Typhoon Noru tracking west-southwestward over the Philippine Sea as of early Sept. 25 /update 3

Event

Super Typhoon Noru, named Karding in the Philippines, has intensified significantly and is tracking west-southwestward over the Philippine Sea as of early Sept. 25. As of 05:00 PHT, the system's center of circulation was approximately 402 km (250 miles) east of Manila.

Forecast models indicate that the storm system will strengthen further as it tracks westward and passes north of Polillo Islands in the Philippines, making landfall over Quezon Province, very near the border with Aurora Province, the evening of Sept. 25 before weakening into a typhoon as it tracks over the Central Luzon Region through Sept. 25. The storm will weaken temporarily as it enters the South China Sea and likely strengthen again early Sept. 28 as it tracks westward towards central Vietnam. Noru is likely to continue strengthening and make landfall over Quang Ngai Province in Vietnam early Sept. 28 before weakening rapidly as it tracks westward across central Vietnam, southern Laos, and eastern Thailand, dissipating over eastern Chaiyaphum Province, Thailand, early Sept. 30. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur over the coming hours.

As of early Sept. 25, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has issued Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal 3 across central and southern Aurora, far northern Quezon including Polillo Islands, eastern Nueva Ecija, eastern Bulacan, northern Rizal, and northern Camarines Norte provinces. Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal 2 is in effect for the rest of Aurora, Bataan, Batangas, Benguet, the rest of Bulacan, the rest of Camarines Norte, northern Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, Cavite, southern Isabela, La Union, Laguna, Metro Manila, the rest of Nueva Ecija, Nueva Vizcaya, Pampanga, Pangasinan, northern and central Quezon, Quirino, the rest of Rizal, Tarlac, and Zambales provinces while Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal 1 is in place over the rest of Luzon. Authorities have warned of moderate to heavy rainfall over Polillo Islands and Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, and Isabela provinces as well as light to moderate rainfall over Aurora, mainland Cagayan, Marinduque, Nueva Vizcaya, Quezon, Quirino, and Romblon provinces and the rest of Bicol Region through the afternoon of Sept. 25. After which, the rainfall is forecast to intensify, with heavy to intense rain over Aurora, Bataan, Bulacan, Metro Manila, Nueva Ecija, Pampanga, northern Quezon including Polillo Islands, Rizal, Tarlac, and Zambales provinces and moderate to heavy rain over Benguet, Camarines Norte, Cavite, Ifugao, Isabela, Laguna, Mountain Province, Nueva Vizcaya, Pangasinan, central Quezon, and Quirino provinces through early Sept. 26. Authorities will likely issue new warnings or update existing advisories in the coming days as the storm approaches.

Authorities in the Philippines have closed the landslide-prone Kennon Road in Benguet Province in advance of the storm. Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
China Meteorological Administration
Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA)