North Korea: North Korea reportedly launches an unspecified ballistic missile toward East Sea late Sept. 29

Event

North Korea reportedly fired at least one unspecified ballistic missile toward the East Sea (Sea of Japan) late Sept. 29. South Korean authorities did not immediately report the exact flight path or launch distance of the projectile. There were no immediate reports of damage, injuries, or transport disruptions in connection with the incident.

Context

The projectile launch is at least partially intended to demonstrate the government's defense policy to counter alleged US aggression for a domestic audience and possibly gain more leverage for future nuclear negotiations. The latest launch comes hours following US Vice President Kamala Harris' departure from South Korea. On Sept. 28, North Korea fired at least two unspecified ballistic missiles toward the East Sea a day ahead of Harris' official state visit to Seoul. On Sept. 25, Pyongyang fired an unspecified ballistic missile toward the East Sea days after the conclusion of a US-South Korea military exercise involving an aircraft carrier. While former South Korean President Moon Jae-in adopted a conciliatory approach to North Korea, newly elected Yoon will likely take a tougher stance and possibly engage in retaliatory action should North Korea increase its posturing.

Despite attempts at jumpstarting diplomacy, the geopolitical dynamics on the Korean Peninsula remain largely unaltered, as North Korea has previously stated it will only give up its nuclear weapons in exchange for concrete moves to reduce perceived US threats against it. North Korean leaders have previously warned of stronger actions in response to the latest US sanctions, and further launches remain possible in the coming weeks. However, both sides are likely to avoid any actions that could escalate into a full-scale conflict.