Lesotho: Heightened tensions likely nationwide following election results, Oct. 11 /update 2

Event

Political tensions are likely to persist nationwide in the coming days following the Oct. 11 release of the Oct. 7 parliamentary election results. According to the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC), the Revolution for Prosperity (RFP) party has won the elections with 56 of 120 seats, displacing the incumbent All Basotho Convention (ABC) as the leading party. Despite the RFP winning the elections, it does not hold a parliamentary majority, therefore forcing the RFP to form a coalition with the Alliance of Democrats (AD) and the National Independence Party (NIP).

It remains unclear whether the ABC will contest the election results. Although the voting passed off peacefully, should the ABC contest the result, tensions could rise in the coming days, and associated demonstrations are possible. Security personnel will likely deploy to any protests that occur. Clashes between supporters of rival political groupings could occur near party headquarters and government buildings, especially in Maseru. Authorities may use force to disperse any protests that materialize. Localized road travel disruptions are likely near any incidents of civil unrest or violence.

Context

In 1998 Lesotho changed its electoral system from a “first past the post” to a mixed-member system. The PM comes from the party with the majority in the 120-seat parliament, with 80 coming from constituencies and 40 from a proportional division of votes. This election reform has resulted in an increase in political parties and associated political instability. Since 2012 and four elections, no political party in Lesotho has won the majority of parliamentary seats. The new parliament will be made up of 14 parties.

There is no specific legal procedure to appeal or contest the election results. The Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) has the possibility to call upon the High Court in cases of vote-buying and abuse of state resources. The High Court has first and last jurisdiction for election results with inclusive legal standing, but with no clear or transparent process of dispute resolution.

There are indications that parties are receiving support from criminal syndicates which may explain the increase in crime-related incidents ahead of the poll. Should the results be disputed, related violence could increase.

Advice

Exercise caution near political party offices, government buildings, and areas with a heavy security presence. Avoid all protests, campaign rallies, and large gatherings before, during, and after the polls, as a precaution. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations.