North Korea: Pyongyang reportedly launches ballistic missile toward East Sea Oct. 28

Event

North Korea fired two short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) toward the East Sea (Sea of Japan) Oct. 28. According to South Korean military officials, North Korea launched the missiles from Tongchon, Kangwon Province, at 11:59 and 12:18. South Korean authorities did not immediately report the SRBMs’ exact flight path or distance. There were no immediate reports of damage, injuries, or transport disruptions in connection with the incident.

Context

The SRBM launches are almost certainly intended to coincide with the conclusion of South Korea’s Hoguk military exercise Oct. 28. Pyongyang has repeatedly launched missiles and projectiles in recent weeks to protest US and South Korean military drills, which North Korean leaders consider practice for an invasion. North Korea fired hundreds of artillery Oct. 17 and 18 into a maritime buffer zone between the two countries. A North Korean merchant ship also crossed the Northern Limit Line, the disputed maritime border in the West Sea (Yellow Sea), prompting South Korean Navy ships to fire warning shots Oct. 24. Additional North Korean provocations remain likely, especially as the US and South Korea prepare for the joint military exercise Vigilant Storm from Oct. 31. US and South Korean officials also continue to warn that Pyongyang plans to conduct another nuclear test in the near term.

Despite attempts at jumpstarting diplomacy, the geopolitical dynamics on the Korean Peninsula remain largely unaltered, as North Korea has previously stated that it will only give up its nuclear weapons in exchange for concrete moves to reduce perceived US threats against it. North Korean leaders have previously warned of stronger actions in response to the latest US sanctions. However, both sides will likely avoid any actions that could escalate into a full-scale conflict.