Ethiopia: Security situation in Tigray will likely remain unstable through mid-April amid prime minister forming Interim Regional Administration /update 1

Event

The security situation in Tigray region will likely remain unstable through at least mid-April amid the formation of an Interim Regional Administration (IRA) on March 22. Parliament set up the IRA with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed appointing Getachew Reda, a former advisor to the president of Tigray and executive committee member of Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), as the IRA leader. The move comes after parliament's removal of the TPLF from the designated terrorist list on March 22 in accordance with the peace accord signed between the federal government and TPLF forces in Pretoria, South Africa, Nov. 2. The IRA will be in place until regional elections are held; the date has not yet been set.

Although several steps have been taken to implement the peace agreement, key issues remain, including the complete disarmament of the TPLF's forces and the withdrawal of armed groups, namely Eritrean troops and Amhara militias, from rural areas of Tigray.

Further fighting may occur between the federal forces and TPLF rebels, given that the peace deal will take a significant time to implement fully. A heightened military presence is likely in the region over the coming weeks. Disruptive protests in response to the removal of TPLF from the terrorist list and appointment of Getachew to head the IRA are also possible in major cities, including Addis Ababa. Localized transport and business disruptions are possible near any protests that may materialize; officials may move quickly to disperse such gatherings.

Advice

Avoid all demonstrations, crowds, and concentrations of security personnel. Consider deferring travel to Tigray region and surrounding areas impacted by fighting. Persons in Tigray region should liaise with trusted contacts. Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation. Heed instructions from authorities.