US Airlines Likely to Experience Further Episodes of Operational Difficulties Through Remainder of 2021
On October 9-10, 2021, Southwest Airlines (WN) experienced major flight disruptions throughout its network, forcing the airline to cancel thousands of flights. While the specific reasons for Southwest’s issues remain hotly debated, it is not the first airline operational meltdown during the COVID-19 pandemic and is unlikely to be the last, as major US airlines are currently at an increased risk of such meltdowns due to ongoing crew shortages. Passengers who are impacted by operational meltdowns should seek alternative travel arrangements immediately, and if that is not possible, should simply remain patient and avoid exacerbating a stressful situation.
There is no established definition for an operational meltdown at an airline, but they are generally characterized by widespread flight delays and cancellations throughout a single airline’s network that lasts multiple days. They are distinct from typical weather delays or other disruptions that usually only affect a single airport and impact all airlines at that airport. These smaller disruptions can serve as a trigger for an operational meltdown, but additional factors are needed to cause routine disruptions to escalate into a full-fledged operational meltdown.
Anatomy of a Meltdown
Almost all operational meltdowns at airlines proceed in three stages. The incident begins with a triggering event, which causes initial disruptions. The incident is then compounded by operational errors or other failures at an airline that turns normal flight disruptions into a full-fledged operational meltdown. Finally, the airline resolves the meltdown, which sometimes requires the airline to endure additional short-term flight disruptions as a way to bring the incident to a halt.
Operational meltdowns typically start with a triggering event, with weather events being the most common. Unexpected weather events such as sudden thunderstorms are more prone to causing meltdowns than large, well-forecasted weather events like hurricanes. The sudden events give airlines little chance to prepare to manage the associated disruptions. Other potential causes for meltdowns include computer system failures, labor actions, and maintenance issues.
After the triggering event, an airline must make errors in its initial response to the event to escalate a routine disruption into a full-fledged operational meltdown. Such errors can include poor crew scheduling that leaves flight crews in the wrong cities and unable to operate their flights, an insistence on trying to operate heavily delayed flights instead of simply canceling them, or even a technician turning a computer system the wrong way after a power outage. These errors subsequently cause the flight disruptions to cascade throughout the airline’s network and into subsequent days.
Airlines’ attempts to resolve an operational meltdown can cause an increase in short-term disruptions. While airlines can simply let meltdowns run down naturally over several days, they can also try to end the meltdown quicker with a “system reset” that normally involves canceling large numbers of flights one day to stop cascading delays, then trying to operate the airline’s schedule from a fresh start the next day. Such procedures are not always successful, however, Spirit Airlines (NK) attempted a system reset during its recent meltdown, but it failed to stop the meltdown because the reset left too many crews in the wrong cities.
Outlook
Further meltdowns at major US airlines are likely in the next 12 months, as staffing issues related to the COVID-19 pandemic have given airlines little flexibility to respond to sudden disruptions. The impact of vaccine mandates on Southwest’s meltdown and potential future meltdowns remains a hotly debated topic, and it is currently unclear whether such mandates will exacerbate airlines’ ongoing crew shortages or trigger additional meltdowns.
Most US airlines are currently short on pilots and flight attendants, making operational meltdowns more likely in the near future. While US airlines generally did not lay off or furlough workers during the COVID-19 pandemic, they did encourage workers to voluntarily leave or take early retirements. This has left airlines understaffed as travelers returned to the skies in the US over the summer, and airlines have been unable to train new pilots and flight attendants fast enough to make up the shortfall. Crew shortages leave airlines especially vulnerable to operational meltdowns, as crews being in the wrong place or out of duty time is a major contributing factor to many meltdowns, and a lack of spare crews means that airlines have less flexibility to respond to disruptive events.
It is unclear how much airlines’ vaccine mandates will impact their ongoing crew shortages and whether protests against such mandates will trigger additional meltdowns. Some commentators have suggested that air traffic controllers or Southwest pilots triggered Southwest’s meltdown with an unofficial labor action over vaccine mandates, but Southwest, the airline’s pilots’ union, and the FAA have all denied that any such protest occurred. Reliable sources indicate that the number of pilots calling in sick during the airline’s meltdown was not higher than normal, and that a one-day staff shortage at an FAA air traffic control facility was not related to a vaccine mandate protest.
Nonetheless, the narrative that an anti-vaccine mandate protest crippled Southwest’s operations has taken root among critics of vaccine mandates, which could trigger genuine labor actions at US airlines in the near future. Airlines will also likely have to terminate some pilots and flight attendants who refuse to comply with vaccine mandates; it is unclear whether the number of affected employees will be enough to exacerbate the airlines’ crew shortages. United Airlines (UA), the first major US carrier to implement a vaccine mandate, said it would fire 20 of its over 13,000 pilots for failing to comply with the mandate; by comparison, United is slated to lose over 400 pilots in 2021 to age-related mandatory retirements.
Recommendations
Responding to an airline’s operational meltdown can be challenging for travelers, as they are very difficult to forecast in advance and can often make an airline’s traditional customer service options useless. The best option for travelers is often to simply buy a ticket with another airline as soon as possible and then worry about the costs of the switch later. If a traveler does become stuck in an operational meltdown, however, the best course of action is to remain patient and avoid exacerbating an already stressful situation.
It is very difficult for travelers to avoid an operational meltdown in advance as it is almost impossible to predict which operational disruptions will cascade into a full meltdown. Airlines experience operational disruptions due to weather and other issues on a near-everyday basis.
The vast majority of these disruptions only last a few hours and impact a small geographic area. The factors that cause a disruption to spiral into a meltdown are normally behind-the-scenes events that are impossible for a traveler to forecast accurately. Travelers, therefore, need to respond to a meltdown once it is underway instead of trying to predict one in advance.
The most effective option for a traveler to get out of an airline’s operational meltdown is to book a flight on a different airline or make other travel arrangements. Operational meltdowns typically affect a single airline at a time, so while one airline’s flights at an airport may be facing a slew of cancellations and heavy delays, other airlines at that airport will likely be operating with minimal disruptions.
However, this option can be very expensive, and finding seats will likely be difficult, as demand for alternative flights will be very high. Travelers who move fastest will be the most likely to find seats on other carriers, so business travelers, in particular, may want to consider buying the ticket first, then figuring out how to fit it into their company’s travel policy later.
If a traveler is unable to make other travel arrangements or simply cancel their travel, the best option in an operational meltdown is to remain patient and avoid making the situation worse. Operational meltdowns are an extremely stressful time for everybody, including travelers and airline customer service staff. The chaotic state of an airline’s operations in a meltdown means that traditional customer service options often become overloaded or unusable, making the situation even more stressful.
Travelers should remember that the customer service staff member they are working with is not responsible for the airline’s meltdown. The staff member is often just as in the dark as the passenger is about which flights will operate and when the airline’s operations will recover. Passengers who become angry or disruptive will not get to their destinations any sooner unless their intended destination is police custody or online infamy.
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