Libya: Security situation to remain unstable due to lack of unified security force and government /update 3

Event

The security situation in Libya will likely remain unstable primarily due to intermittent fighting and armed clashes among various political factions nationwide through at least May. The two competing governments, as well as geopolitical rivalries in Libya, have profoundly complicated the security situation. Kidnapping, political assassinations, criminal activity, along with skirmishes and clashes between opposing militia groups, are among some of the most serious problems that are affecting the country. The UN-recognized Government of National Accord (GNA), led by Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj, is based out the capital city of Tripoli, while the self-styled Libyan National Army (LNA), backed by the House Representatives (HoR) and led by Field Marshall Khalifa Haftar, is operating out of eastern Libya, primarily Benghazi and Tobruk. The LNA’s major military offensive to seize control of Tripoli failed in the summer of 2020. Since then, the two parallel governments have been in talks to bring about a political solution to the country’s civil conflict.

The peace negotiations, called the Libya Political Dialogue Forum, continue to take place among 75 delegates from Libya's rival political factions. The objective of the UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) is to bring about a consensus on a unified governance framework, which can pave the way for national elections in December 2021. However, the most significant obstacle in reaching a political agreement among the rival political representatives is agreeing upon forming a unified, transitional executive.

A series of agreements between the GNA and the LNA, including a permanent ceasefire, was negotiated in Geneva, Switzerland, October 2020. The warring factions have since then held talks in Tunis, Tunisia, Tangier, Morocco, and in Libya in efforts to reach a permanent political solution.

The absence of a cohesive governing body and unified security force could enable militant organizations, such as Islamic State (IS), to regain a foothold in the country. Despite being pushed out of its regional stronghold of Sirte in late 2016, IS still carries out attacks across Libya. Additionally, large demonstrations occur frequently throughout Libya in response to socio-economic and political issues; protests have the potential to turn violent.

Infrastructure
Heavy fighting in the years following the 2011 uprising has taken a substantial toll on Libyan infrastructure. Electricity lines undergo frequent interruptions, and water outages are common; outages can last for several hours at a time, even in the capital. In addition to disruptions resulting directly from crippled infrastructure, armed groups intentionally cut power supplies to rival militia strongholds. Tripoli International Airport (TIP) remains closed after clashes between rival militias in 2014 destroyed most of the airport's facilities. Most flights in Libya operate out of Mitiga International Airport (MJI); however, MJI is subject to closure without warning.

Conflict and Political Disunity
Two rival governments claim to be the sole legitimate political leadership in Libya. The Presidency Council (PC) based in Tripoli, presides over the GNA; the PC was established as part of the UN-brokered Libyan Political Agreement (LPA) of December 2015 and has the support of several western governments. The unity government faces challenges from the rival government of the House of Representatives (HoR) in Tobruk, which is supported by Haftar. The establishment of disparate governments has led to increased instability in the country and complicated Libyan bureaucracy.

Despite the current ceasefire between the GNA and the LNA, fighting could persist between various factions until they reach some political settlement. Heightened security and significant transport and business disruptions are likely in the near term in Tripoli and its surrounding areas.

Security Services
There is no unified professional security force operating in Libya. Local militias - which often have conflicting and evolving allegiances and political and territorial objectives - are generally responsible for providing security. Clashes between heavily armed rival militias are extremely common, even in the capital, and frequently result in casualties and heavy property damage.

Militancy
While Libyan forces mostly cleared IS militants from their stronghold in Sirte by late 2016, the group continues to conduct operations in the country. The majority of IS-perpetrated attacks have targeted LNA forces in and around Ajdabiya in Al Wahat District; however, IS has also claimed attacks in Sirte, Jufra, Misrata, and Tripoli, demonstrating that militants can pose a threat in many areas of the country.

Al-Qaeda-affiliated groups in Libya maintain a presence near Benghazi, Derna, and along the country's southern border. The LNA remains focused on eradicating such groups from these regions and frequently carries out security operations to oust militants from the area.

Civil Unrest
Civil unrest in the forms of labor strikes and protests occurs often. Large demonstrations frequently take place in response to contentious social and political issues, including foreign intervention in Libya and ongoing currency and electricity shortages. In Tripoli, most demonstrations tend to take place in Martyrs Square. All protests have the potential to devolve into violence.

Context

The current security situation in Libya is compounded by the continued inability of the two main rival warring factions - the LNA and GNA - to reconcile. The polarization in Libyan politics and the subsequent inability to consolidate rival militias into a functional, professional national armed force has created an opening for militant organizations to gain a foothold. Militias staunchly aligned with either the GNA or LNA are unlikely to waver in their support. Moreover, since militias remain the most powerful actors in the country, any attempt to facilitate a political agreement without unified militia support is likely to fail.

However, any peace deal will be tenuous, partly because of the number of foreign countries that support competing factions in Libya. The UN has stated the presence of foreign fighters and mercenaries in the country is causing a serious crisis. Despite the recent agreements, weapons continue to pour into Libya. The UN has further noted that the arrival of weapons to Libya is a violation of the Libyan sovereignty and a blatant violation of the arms embargo. Until the external players seriously commit to a peace agreement in Libya, it is difficult to imagine that the country could achieve peace. While Egypt, France, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Russia back the LNA, Turkey, Italy, and Qatar provide support to the GNA. These countries' pursuit of divergent interests in Libya profoundly complicates efforts to arrive at a meaningful political settlement.

Advice

If in Libya, comply with the instructions of local authorities. If possible, limit exposure to official buildings that may be targeted by armed groups, such as security checkpoints and local government offices. When exiting Libya, confirm with local contacts that border crossings and/or airports are operational before checking out of accommodations.

Plan for possible clashes and significant travel disruptions if operating in southern and southwestern Libya. If fighting intensifies, remain sheltered in a secure location, preferably indoors, away from exterior walls and windows. Liaise with trusted local contacts for updates on the situation and verify onward transportation before checking out of accommodation. Prepare for heightened security, including checkpoints. Carry official identification at all times. Heed all instructions from security personnel. Remain calm and nonconfrontational, and comply with authorities' directions if confronted. Do not attempt to bypass security checkpoints; even an accidental breach of the security cordon near a checkpoint may prompt security forces to respond aggressively.