Thailand: Additional protests by opposing groups remain possible nationwide through at least mid-February /update 39

Event

Further demonstrations by rival political activist groups remain possible across Thailand through at least mid-February, despite a decrease in protest frequency in recent weeks. Gatherings will likely occur in Bangkok and the surrounding provinces, such as Nonthaburi and Samut Prakan, and other urban centers, including Chiang Mai, Chonburi, and Songkhla. Probable protest venues include government buildings and popular gathering sites, such as college campuses, prominent intersections, monuments, police stations, courts, or public parks. In Bangkok, activists could gather at the Democracy Monument, Government House, Parliament, Pathum Wan, Ratchaprasong and Sam Yan intersections, and Lumpini Park. Hundreds to thousands of people have participated in both pro-democracy and royalist gatherings in Bangkok and other cities nationwide, and upcoming rallies may involve similar numbers.

Organizers may announce protest locations at short notice. Authorities will almost certainly heighten security at announced gathering venues. Localized transport and business disruptions are likely during rallies, especially for gatherings with high turnouts or if demonstrators occupy nearby roads. Officials may close train stations in anticipation of large rallies. Confrontations between opposing groups of activists or police and demonstrators are possible; authorities have forcibly dispersed protesters in past gatherings. Mass arrests may occur if security forces consider any gathering to violate coronavirus disease (COVID-19) restrictions, lese majeste laws that ban alleged insults against the monarchy, or requirements for public gathering permits.

Context

Royalist and pro-democracy activists have staged multiple rival demonstrations in Bangkok and other cities nationwide since July. Pro-democracy groups are denouncing the current government's alleged non-democratic policies, and are demanding political reforms, such as the rewriting of the constitution and Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-o-cha's resignation. Some activists have also criticized the monarchy as being incompatible with democracy. However, royalist groups claim that pro-democracy agendas undermine the monarchy and state institutions, and have demonstrated against actions that they deem are disrespectful of the monarchy.

Advice

Avoid any protests due to possible clashes. Plan for localized transport and business disruptions during any demonstrations. Allow additional time for travel and plan driving routes that circumvent rally sites. Remain cooperative if stopped by officials for security checks. If violence occurs nearby, immediately leave the area and seek shelter in a non-government building. Heed all official traffic and security advisories.