Lebanon: Anti-government protests and strikes likely to continue nationwide through late February /update 1

Event

Anti-government demonstrations and strikes will likely continue nationwide across Lebanon through at least late February. Lebanese political parties have failed to form a new government in the aftermath of a major explosion at the Port of Beirut in August 2020. The ongoing political deadlock has further delayed long-awaited reforms and exacerbated the country's political and economic crisis, increasing the potential for civil unrest. Worsening unemployment, currency devaluation, and the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has further compounded Lebanon's problems. Nationwide protests to condemn government corruption and economic mismanagement began in October 2019.

Demonstrations, sit-ins, strikes, and roadblocks will almost certainly continue across the country, including in Beirut, Sidon, Tripoli, and Tyre. Prominent rally sites include public squares, government buildings, and city centers. In Beirut, protests will likely continue to materialize at the Port of Beirut, the Ministry of Justice, Riad el-Solh Road, Martyr's Square, and near the government palace. Demonstrators may burn tires and barricade main roadways sporadically during protests, prompting ground travel disruptions. Transport disruptions and strikes could also result in further commercial disruptions. Security forces will almost certainly continue to monitor and respond to all protests and roadblocks. Clashes between security forces and protesters are likely if protesters ignore police orders or are overly disruptive.

Protesters have engaged in rioting and acts of vandalism against public and private property. Protesters are particularly frustrated with banks and other financial institutions, which have imposed capital controls on withdrawals and foreign transfers. Demonstrators have previously targeted banks with improvised incendiary devices, and additional similar incidents remain possible. Periodic bank closures in response to the demonstrations have been occurring throughout Lebanon; further bank closures could occur and will likely result in low cash supplies at ATMs.

Context

Lebanon’s political and economic crisis continues to worsen amid ongoing political deadlock. Despite widespread protests and unrest over the course of the past year, Lebanese political parties have been seemingly unable to form a new government to address the country's myriad challenges. Most recently, Lebanese political leaders nominated former Prime Minister Saad Hariri to the premiership in October 2020. Hariri has vowed to form a cabinet of nonpartisan specialists to pass urgent reforms; however, the government currently remains at an impasse despite months of negotiations.

Hariri previously served as Prime Minister in Lebanon on three occasions; most recently, he served in 2019 but resigned in October of that year due to the eruption of mass anti-government protests. While the momentum of the protest movement has waned in the wake of the major explosion at the Port of Beirut and the COVID-19 pandemic, protesters continue to demand the resignation of Lebanon’s entire ruling elite and an overhaul of the confessional government structure, which distributes political power according to sect. They claim that this system has only benefitted political elites and encourages a lack of accountability. Hariri’s nomination to the premiership represents a continuation of the same entrenched ruling elite and government structure that protesters have been fighting to change. Absent major reforms that unlock international financial assistance and address the demands of protesters, conditions will only continue to deteriorate, and anti-government demonstrations will persist.

Advice

Liaise with trusted contacts regarding protest sites, and maintain contact with diplomatic missions. Avoid all demonstrations due to the potential for localized clashes or other security incidents. Allow significant extra time to reach destinations in city centers in Lebanon until the protests abate. Do not attempt to pass through roadblocks; wait for authorities to remove them. Be alert for residual debris and sharp objects if driving on previously blocked roads. Heed the instructions of local security personnel. Remain courteous and cooperative if approached and questioned by law enforcement officers. Reconfirm business appointments.