Armenia, Azerbaijan: Further sporadic violence likely along Azerbaijan and Armenia border in coming months following fatal violence Jan. 11 /update 8

Event

Further sporadic escalations of violence between Armenian and Azeri forces along the de-facto border between the two countries remain likely in the coming months following clashes in the Kalbajar area Jan. 11, which left at least two Armenian and one Azeri serviceman dead. Armenian sources suggest that the violence involved artillery and drone attacks against its troops. On the previous day, Armenian-aligned officials in the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region claimed that Azeri forces had also opened fire on agricultural workers in the vicinity of Martuni, prompting the intervention of Russian peacekeepers.

The violence appears to be the most significant escalation since Nov. 16, when up to 15 Armenian and seven Azeri soldiers were killed in the vicinity of Armenia's Gegharkunik and Syunik provinces. Such incidents are relatively common, despite the imposition of a Russian-brokered ceasefire, which came into effect July 28; each side frequently accuses the other of failing to comply with the truce.

Armenia and Azerbaijan will maintain elevated security measures, possibly including increased troop deployments, along the shared border over the coming months. Security forces could erect checkpoints and temporarily close key routes leading to the border; localized disruptions are probable at short notice.

Context

Following the ceasefire deal that ended the 2020 conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Baku regained control of several regions adjacent to Gegharkunik and Syunik provinces. However, a dispute over the demarcation of the border between the two nations persists and there have been several fatal exchanges of fire along the border since mid-July. Azerbaijani officials have also accused Armenian troops of repeated attempts to cross the border in Kalbajar District.

As a member of the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), Armenia has repeatedly called on the bloc to discuss a collective response to the incidents; however, the CSTO has refrained from doing so. Russia is currently brokering talks between the opposing nations to resolve long-standing border demarcation issues. Armenia and Azerbaijan have indicated they are both committed to resolving the issue through dialogue. A resumption of large-scale, direct conflict is unlikely at this time.

Advice

Consider avoiding travel to the affected areas until the situation has stabilized. Exercise caution in Armenia-Azerbaijan border areas over the coming months. Allow additional time for travel, carry relevant identification documents, and remain polite and nonconfrontational if questioned by security forces. Leave the area immediately at the first sign of a confrontation.