Russia, Ukraine: Tensions likely to escalate in coming days following Kremlin's Feb. 21 recognition of Donetsk and Luhansk sovereignty /update 17

Event

Tensions between Russia and Ukraine will almost certainly intensify over the coming days after Russian President Vladimir Putin signed an order on Feb. 21 immediately recognizing the sovereignty of the break-away Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts and tasking the Federation Council in Moscow with ratifying agreements on friendship and mutual assistance. The move comes as hostilities across the Line of Contact (LoC) in Ukraine's Donbas region have continued to escalate. According to the most recent report released by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe's (OSCE) Special Monitoring Mission, as of the evening of Feb. 18, the number of ceasefire violations - including explosions - in the Donetsk Oblast had risen by over three-fold as compared with Feb. 16; the Luhansk Oblast experienced an over 200 percent increase in violations over the same two-day period. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defence and Russian-backed separatists each blame the other for the escalation.

Separatist leaders in the two breakaway oblasts have reportedly mobilized able-bodied military-aged men and called on residents in areas under their control to evacuate to Russia, claiming a Ukrainian offensive into the region is imminent - an assertion Kyiv denies. In response, Russia's Rostov, Voronezh, and Kursk oblasts, which border Ukraine, have declared states of emergency (SoE), ostensibly to manage the expected influx of refugees from separatist-held areas. According to the Luhansk separatist government's press service, about 45,000 residents of Luhansk were evacuated to Russia by train between Feb. 18-21.

Kyiv has denounced the mobilizations and evacuations as a provocation and refrained from otherwise responding. Ukrainian officials and some Western governments have consistently claimed that any significant escalation of conflict in the Donbas or Russian claims to have engaged Ukrainian forces directly might be attempts by the Kremlin to create a false pretext for invading Ukraine. In some of its most recent allegations, Moscow asserted Feb. 21 that Russian forces had destroyed two Ukrainian armored fighting vehicles that had violated its border by entering the Rostov Oblast to extract a saboteur team. Separately, Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) earlier alleged a Russian border post near the village of Scherbakovo in the Rostov Oblast was destroyed by Ukrainian shelling; no casualties were reported. It is impossible to independently verify many of the claims made by either side, both nations consistently deny each other's assertions. Nevertheless, such reports are becoming increasingly common as tensions mount.

Previous troop deployments bolstered forces in Russia's Belgorod, Bryansk, Kursk, Rostov, and Voronezh oblasts; many Russian troops have also moved into Belarus and taken up positions close to the Belarus-Ukraine border. Russian forces are ostensibly in Belarus to conduct joint maneuvers; however, the two nations have indefinitely extended the military exercises beyond their scheduled end date of Feb. 20. Additionally, Russia has also bolstered naval forces in the region and issued a notice to airmen (NOTAM) to avoid the airspace over the Sea of Azov from 00:01 Feb. 22.

Embassy Drawdowns and Travel Advisories
A number of countries have drawn down staffing at their diplomatic missions in Ukraine and/or issued special advisories concerning travel in the affected region. The US government has ordered the departure of most staff from its embassy in Kyiv and suspended most consular services at the facility. A small consular presence is located in Lviv for emergencies; however, that location does not provide passport, visa, or routine consular services. Several other nations have also withdrawn some embassy staff and their dependents, including Canada, the UK, and Japan, likely resulting in reduced availability of consular services at those missions.

German authorities have instructed German citizens to immediately leave Ukraine. French authorities have called on French nationals to leave Ukraine unless they have a compelling reason for continuing their stay in the country, and have advised that all scheduled trips to Ukraine be postponed. French authorities have also called on French citizens in the Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, and Dnipro regions to immediately leave these areas, and for individuals to refrain from traveling to the northern and eastern border areas of the country. US and UK authorities have advised their citizens to depart Ukraine immediately while commercial means are still available. Australia advises against all travel to Ukraine, while Canada advises against nonessential travel. The US has also updated its Do Not Travel advisories for Belarus and Moldova due to unusual Russian military movements.

Transportation and Infrastructure
With the exception of existing COVID-19-related restrictions, there are currently no major administrative obstacles to entry into and exit from Ukraine by foreign or local nationals. Nevertheless, the security situation could deteriorate at short notice, resulting in significant impediments to international travel, particularly at Ukraine's airports. Notably, Lufthansa (LH) and Lufthansa Group airlines, including Swiss International Air Lines (LX) and Austria Airlines (OS), have suspended flights to Kyiv and Odesa as of Feb. 21. Air France (AF) has canceled flights to/from Kyiv scheduled for Feb. 22 and will evaluate whether further cancellations are necessary in the coming days. An outbreak of hostilities would also further impact the ability of diplomatic missions to provide consular support.

Road and rail movement of large numbers of military vehicles could cause temporary disruptions on regional highways and arterial rail lines in Belarus and Russia. Increased scrutiny of foreigners' identity and visa documentation is likely near military sites in Russia or Belarus, the border with Ukraine, and in areas where military units are deployed. Maritime incidents in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov are also increasingly possible amid a high level of naval activity by multiple nations in these waters.

Belligerent actions short of war remain likely, including cyberattacks on sensitive sites or critical infrastructure and aggressive military maneuvers. Authorities in Ukraine have blamed Russia and Belarus for a Jan. 14 cyberattack that disabled several government websites.

Context

The Kremlin's move to recognize the sovereignty of the self-proclaimed Luhansk People's Republic and Donetsk People's Republic, two breakaway provinces located in eastern Ukraine, represents a major escalation in the current situation. Officially recognizing them as independent countries and establishing mutual assistance agreements pave the way for Moscow to openly provide the two separatist governments with direct military aid, potentially including the deployment of Russian military units along the Donbas LoC where they would be in direct contact with Ukrainian troops.

Ongoing diplomatic efforts have as yet done little to ease tensions between Russia and Ukraine. Moscow has asserted it will respond with "military-technical measures" if its demands are not met. US officials maintain there is a very high threat of a Russian invasion in the next several days.

Russia is demanding security guarantees from the US and NATO that would limit NATO deployments in Eastern Europe and prohibit the expansion of NATO into former Soviet states, such as Ukraine. In turn, the US has repeatedly warned Russia of strong economic and diplomatic measures should Russia launch an offensive into Ukraine. Washington has also offered Moscow no guarantees that NATO would refrain from further expansion or that US assistance to Ukraine would cease. However, the US has explicitly ruled out the deployment of any US forces in Ukraine to deter or respond to a potential invasion.

In the event of a conflict, Russian military objectives would likely be limited and aimed at achieving rapid gains from which to call a halt and negotiate from a position of strength before any large-scale, coordinated Western economic retaliation can be mustered. Moscow may also assess that a limited military incursion would incur less severe economic sanctions and choose to limit any offensive action to existing conflict zones in the Donbas and oblasts along eastern borders.

Advice

Consider deferring nonessential travel to Ukraine and Ukrainian border areas of Russia and Belarus and withdrawing nonessential staff until the situation stabilizes. If planning to leave, book flights as early as possible and arrive at the airport early to prevent your seat from being allocated to a standby passenger; allow additional time for processing. Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation. Ensure that contingency plans are reviewed and regularly updated. Maintain flexible itineraries, monitor local media for updates on the situation, and be prepared to change travel plans at short notice in response to developments.

Do not take photographs of security force facilities or units. Avoid discussing military movements or the political situation with strangers. Remain polite and nonconfrontational if questioned by security forces. Check trusted local sources for updated information on potential travel disruptions. Be discreet when discussing the situation, including on social media.

Resources

US Embassy in Ukraine