Ukraine: Russian forces continue military operations in east of country as of July 15 /update 161

Event

Russian forces continued to conduct limited ground offensive operations in eastern Ukraine as of July 15 amid an apparent operational pause. Most recent activity has occurred on three axes in the north of the Donetsk Region in the directions of Slovyansk, Siversk, and Bakhmut. Russian forces have continued to conduct shelling, missile attacks, and airstrikes both across the front line and in other parts of the country.

Russian forces are continuing in their attempts to advance southeastward along the E40 highway from Izyum to Slovyansk but have had limited success in recent weeks; notably, Ukrainian defenders repelled a Russian attack on Kurulka July 14. Unconfirmed reports indicate that Russian forces have reached the outskirts of Siversk after advancing westward from Lysychansk. Russian troops are also attempting to assault Bakhmut; Ukrainian forces have repulsed related attacks around the Vuhlehirska Thermal Power Plant to the southeast.

In the south of the country, Moscow remains largely focused on solidifying defensive positions in the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions in anticipation of an announced Ukrainian counteroffensive in the area. Ukrainian forces have reportedly retaken 44 towns and villages in the Kherson Region in recent weeks. Fighting also continues north of Kharkiv as Russia and Ukraine launch limited attacks and counterattacks on settlements along the line of contact. Russia has shelled Kharkiv city for several consecutive days as of July 15; further strikes on Kharkiv city are likely over the short term.

Moscow launched at least 10 missiles at Mykolaiv July 15, striking two university campuses; no casualties were immediately reported in connection with the strikes. Mykolaiv is subject to regular artillery and rocket bombardment.

Disruptions and Shortages
Ukrainian Railways (UZ) has restored near-regular commuter services throughout much of the central and western parts of the country and continues to operate evacuation trains from most major cities, including Kyiv; however, rail services are subject to disruptions without warning. Civilian aviation remains suspended and the nation's seaports are closed.

The government has extended Ukraine's nationwide martial law decree until Aug. 23. Curfews are in effect in multiple regions. In Kyiv Region, a curfew is in effect 23:00-05:00 until at least July 17. Nightly curfews are also in place in Mykolaiv 23:00-06:00 and Zaporizhzhia Region 23:00-05:00. Generally, civilians must stay indoors during curfew hours; exemptions exist for workers in critical infrastructure and persons seeking urgent medical care or bomb shelters. Depending on local developments, authorities may extend or amend curfew hours on short notice.

Intermittent telecommunications, internet, and utility disruptions continue across much of the country. Reports also indicate a shortage of basic supplies, including groceries and pharmaceutical products, in multiple cities facing Russian ground assaults. Finally, the National Bank of Ukraine has limited foreign currency transfers and withdrawals.

Context

Russian forces' recent capture of the Luhansk Region marks the achievement of a significant objective for the Kremlin. Moscow's attention will now probably turn to the impending battles for Siversk, Bakhmut, and Slovyansk. With the bulk of Russia's personnel and equipment having been deployed in the Luhansk Region, further major assaults against settlements bordering that region are likely. Ukrainian forces are likely seeking to bolster defensive positions along the Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway and between Bakhmut and Svitlodarsk; however, it remains possible that Ukrainian forces will fall back beyond the highway to more established defensive positions in Bakhmut and Siversk.

Regardless of Russia's next major objective, an increase in Russian offensive operations is highly likely throughout the combat zone in the coming days. The territorial situation in much of the country outside the Luhansk Region has remained fairly static for some time. Russian operations north of Kharkiv continue, with the aim of securing the border region and supply lines. Russian artillery and rocket fire into the Sumy Region from Russia's Kursk Oblast has also continued, with the likely aim of pinning a number of Ukrainian forces in the region.

Ukraine has increasingly struck targets deep behind Russian lines with advanced Western weaponry in an attempt to attrite and degrade Russian forces, with the goal of eventually stalling Russia's advance. However, Kyiv's forces continue to come under intense pressure in the Donbas as Russia conducts intense artillery and aerial bombardments ahead of daily ground assaults on Ukrainian defensive positions.

Ukrainian intelligence released a statement July 1 indicating that, in its estimation, a direct military offensive from Belarus remains unlikely despite the deployment of seven battalions of the Belarusian Armed Forces near the border with Ukraine. However, Minsk has falsely accused Kyiv of launching missiles against military facilities within Belarus; Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko alleges that Ukraine is provoking his country and has threatened to "respond instantly" to any attacks.

As the conflict remains largely concentrated in the east and the south of the country, particularly in the Donbas, Kharkiv, and Kherson regions, residents are increasingly returning to central and western areas, particularly Kyiv. Additionally, despite numerous foreign governments continuing to advise against travel to Ukraine, many business operations are resuming in the country's central and western regions; however, strikes continue to target critical infrastructure and other sites nationwide.

Advice

Avoid travel to Ukraine until the situation stabilizes; consider exiting the country if safe to do so. Where fighting or airstrikes are occurring, shelter in place until the situation becomes clear. If officials report incoming fire, stay away from windows and exterior walls. Strictly heed the instructions of local security personnel, particularly when ordered to air-raid shelters.

Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Confirm that a thorough communication plan exists to ensure rapid accountability for all personnel operating in Ukraine. Reconfirm the status of public transport services, road routes, and borders before departure. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, consider avoiding off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance.

Resources

Ukrainian Railways - UZ
Listing of Available Trains by City
State Border Guard Service