Ukraine: Russian forces continue military operations in east of country as of July 16 /update 162

Event

Russian forces began showing initial signs of potentially ending their recent operational pause as of July 16, staging limited ground offensive operations in eastern Ukraine. The latest activity has occurred on several axes in northern and central areas of the Donetsk Region, particularly in the Slovyansk, Siversk, and Bakhmut sectors, as well as along the Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway (T1302) and south of the city of Donetsk. Russian troops reportedly attempted to improve their positions in the vicinity of Ivano-Daryivka, Hryhorivka, Novoluhansk, and Semihirya but were repulsed by Ukrainian defenders. Russian units also launched an unsuccessful bid to seize the Vuhlehirsk Thermal Power Plant July 16.

Moscow's forces have continued to conduct shelling, missile attacks, and airstrikes both across the front line and in other parts of the country.

In the south of the country, Moscow remains largely focused on solidifying defensive positions in the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions in anticipation of an announced Ukrainian counteroffensive in the area. Ukrainian forces have reportedly retaken 44 towns and villages in the Kherson Region in recent weeks. Fighting also continues north of Kharkiv as Russia and Ukraine launch limited attacks and counterattacks on settlements along the line of contact. Russia has shelled Kharkiv city for several consecutive days as of July 16; further strikes on Kharkiv city are likely over the short term.

Moscow launched at least 10 missiles at Mykolaiv July 15, striking two university campuses; no casualties were immediately reported in connection with the strikes. Mykolaiv is subject to regular artillery and rocket bombardment.

Disruptions and Shortages
Ukrainian Railways (UZ) has restored near-regular commuter services throughout much of the central and western parts of the country and continues to operate evacuation trains from most major cities, including Kyiv; however, rail services are subject to disruptions without warning. Civilian aviation remains suspended and the nation's seaports are closed.

The government has extended Ukraine's nationwide martial law decree until Aug. 23. Curfews are in effect in multiple regions. In Kyiv Region, a curfew is in effect 23:00-05:00 until at least July 24. Nightly curfews are also in place in Mykolaiv 23:00-06:00 and Zaporizhzhia Region 23:00-05:00. Generally, civilians must stay indoors during curfew hours; exemptions exist for workers in critical infrastructure and persons seeking urgent medical care or bomb shelters. Depending on local developments, authorities may extend or amend curfew hours on short notice.

Intermittent telecommunications, internet, and utility disruptions continue across much of the country. Reports also indicate a shortage of basic supplies, including groceries and pharmaceutical products, in multiple cities facing Russian ground assaults. Finally, the National Bank of Ukraine has limited foreign currency transfers and withdrawals.

Context

Moscow's attention appears to have turned to the impending battles for Siversk, Bakhmut, and Slovyansk. With the bulk of Russia's personnel and equipment having been deployed in the Luhansk Region, further major assaults against settlements bordering that region are likely. Ukrainian forces are likely seeking to bolster defensive positions along the Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway and between Bakhmut and Svitlodarsk; however, it remains possible that Ukrainian forces will fall back beyond the highway to more established defensive positions in Bakhmut and Siversk.

Regardless of Russia's next major objective, an increase in Russian offensive operations is highly likely throughout the combat zone in the coming days. The territorial situation in much of the country outside the Luhansk Region has remained fairly static for some time. Russian operations north of Kharkiv continue, with the aim of securing the border region and supply lines. Russian artillery and rocket fire into the Sumy Region from Russia's Kursk Oblast has also continued, with the likely aim of pinning a number of Ukrainian forces in the region.

Ukraine has increasingly struck targets deep behind Russian lines with advanced Western weaponry in an attempt to attrite and degrade Russian forces, with the goal of eventually stalling Russia's advance. However, Kyiv's forces continue to come under intense pressure in the Donbas as Russia conducts intense artillery and aerial bombardments ahead of daily ground assaults on Ukrainian defensive positions.

As the conflict remains largely concentrated in the east and the south of the country, particularly in the Donbas, Kharkiv, and Kherson regions, residents are increasingly returning to central and western areas, particularly Kyiv. Additionally, despite numerous foreign governments continuing to advise against travel to Ukraine, many business operations are resuming in the country's central and western regions; however, strikes continue to target critical infrastructure and other sites nationwide.

Advice

Avoid travel to Ukraine until the situation stabilizes; consider exiting the country if safe to do so. Where fighting or airstrikes are occurring, shelter in place until the situation becomes clear. If officials report incoming fire, stay away from windows and exterior walls. Strictly heed the instructions of local security personnel, particularly when ordered to air-raid shelters.

Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Confirm that a thorough communication plan exists to ensure rapid accountability for all personnel operating in Ukraine. Reconfirm the status of public transport services, road routes, and borders before departure. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, consider avoiding off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance.

Resources

Ukrainian Railways - UZ
Listing of Available Trains by City
State Border Guard Service