Europe: High terror threat level extended in Belgorod and Bryansk oblasts through Aug. 22, and in Kursk Oblast through Aug. 23 /update 75

Event

Authorities in Russia have extended the "high" (yellow) terror threat level in regions bordering Ukraine, as of Aug. 11. The yellow terror threat has been extended through Aug. 22 in Belgorod and Bryansk oblasts, while authorities in Kursk Oblast have extended the yellow terror threat level through Aug. 23. The "yellow" terror threat is the middle level on a three-tier scale where "increased" (blue) is the lowest level and "critical" (red) is the highest. Authorities have not offered official justifications for the high terror threat level; however, Ukrainian saboteurs are believed to be active in border areas, and several incidents could be attributed to them. Additionally, cross-border artillery shelling occasionally strikes border villages in the Kursk and Bryansk oblasts, often in response to artillery fire from Russia. Authorities occasionally increase the terror threat in other regions bordering Ukraine, including Voronezh and Rostov oblasts; however, no terror threat warnings are currently active in these regions.

Conflict-related sanctions and travel restrictions continue to cause disruptions in Europe and Russia as of Aug. 11.

Airspace Closures
The airspace of numerous countries remains closed to all Russian aircraft and flights. Russia has implemented reciprocal bans from Russian airspace for airlines operated by those countries, including EU member nations, the UK, Canada, the US, Australia, New Zealand, South Korea, and Japan. In addition, several airlines not necessarily impacted by the national airspace closures have decided to partially or fully suspend services using Russian airspace.

European Air Travel Restrictions
Belarus has partially closed its airspace, including the southern Brest Region and areas south of Asipovichy and Krichev in Mogilev Region. The European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) has also issued an advisory regarding the airspace around the Belarus-Ukraine and Russia-Ukraine borders. These restrictions are in addition to those imposed on Belarus by Western governments and airlines after Belarusian authorities forced a flight between Greece and Lithuania to divert to Minsk under false pretenses in May 2021 to arrest a dissident Belarusian journalist. The EU has banned overflights of their airspace by Belarusian airlines and numerous airlines are avoiding Belarusian airspace or have suspended overflights of Belarus as of Aug. 11. Finally, Ukrainian airspace remains closed to all commercial air traffic.

Russian Travel Restrictions
Russia's Federal Air Transport Agency (Rosaviatsiya) has extended the suspension of flight operations at ten airports in southwestern parts of the country and one airport in Russian-annexed Crimea until at least 03:45 MSK Aug 17. Impacted facilities include Anapa Airport (AAQ), Belgorod International Airport (EGO), Bryansk International Airport (BZK), Elista International Airport (ESL), Gelendzhik Airport (GDZ), Krasnodar International Airport (KRR), Kursk Vostochny Airport (URS), Lipetsk Airport (LPK), Rostov-on-Don Airport (RVI), and Voronezh International Airport (VOZ) in Russia, in addition to Simferopol International Airport (SIP) in Russian-annexed Crimea. The measure was previously slated to expire Aug. 11.

In addition to the abovementioned airport closures, Russia has also scrapped the simplified visa process available for diplomats and journalists from the EU, Denmark, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, and Switzerland. Holders of diplomatic passports from these countries must obtain a visa to enter Russia.

Travel Warnings
Several governments, including those of the US, France, the UK, Australia, and Canada, have issued travel advisories calling on their nationals to avoid travel to Russia and for those within that country to depart by commercial means when it is safe to do so.

Additionally, multiple governments have expelled numerous Russian diplomats on various grounds, including espionage and other national security concerns. Moscow typically retaliates in a similar fashion. Most recently, Russian authorities expanded the list of so-called "unfriendly nations" that have joined sanctions against Moscow and are considered hostile. The list now includes the Bahamas, Guernsey, and the Isle of Man. Russian authorities will restrict the number of local staff employed at these nations' diplomatic missions in Russia. Such tit-for-tat moves may reduce available consular services in each country, though core services will likely be maintained while diplomatic missions remain open.

Heightened Security and General Disruptions
Several countries sharing borders with Ukraine, Belarus, and Russia have implemented heightened security. Hungary, Moldova, Slovakia, and Lithuania have enacted states of emergency. Nevertheless, Moldova, Slovakia, Hungary, and Poland are all keeping their borders with Ukraine open and are receiving refugees.

Ukraine has closed its border checkpoints with Belarus, Russia, and the breakaway Transnistria region of Moldova to foreign nationals; however, Ukrainian citizens are permitted to return.

Since late April, authorities in Moldova have increased security nationwide following a series of security incidents, including explosions and shootings, in Transnistria region. Separatist officials in Transnistria also briefly increased the enclave's terror threat level.

Sanctions
As part of the seventh package of sanctions, EU authorities have banned the purchase, import, or transfer of Russian gold. The sanctions package also targets 54 additional Russian nationals and 10 Russian entities, including Sberbank; their assets and financial activity in EU member states will be increasingly restricted. Restrictions on business activity have also been expanded to include Russian-owned companies based outside Russia. The restriction on Russian ships accessing EU ports has been expanded to include coastal, river, and canal locks.

However, in an effort to combat rising costs for energy and basic goods, the EU expanded exceptions allowing for the transfer of funds to Russian entities from third countries for the purchase of oil, medicine, and environmental and agricultural products. Additionally, the EU has also lifted a ban on European entities supplying goods, services, and technology to Russia's aviation sector.

The EU previously agreed to ban 90 percent of Russian oil imports by the end of 2022. The ban targets oil delivered by tankers; the Russian Druzhba pipeline continues to transfer oil to Hungary and Slovakia. The Czech Republic, which is also served by the Druzhba pipeline, has refused to pay for Russian oil.

Sanctions and countersanctions could limit the ability of some foreign nationals to operate in Russia and Belarus and of Russian and Belarusian nationals to operate in Europe. However, foreign nationals seeking to leave Russia or Belarus, or Russians and Belarusians seeking to leave European nations, are unlikely to face administrative obstacles. Shortages of essential goods due to panic buying are possible.

Aside from governmental sanctions, hundreds of companies have either suspended or terminated their Russian operations. Financial services, including PayPal, Visa, Mastercard, American Express, and Western Union have suspended operations in the country. American Express and Western Union have also suspended all operations in Belarus.

Russia has stopped supplying natural gas to Denmark, the Netherlands, Finland, Poland, and Bulgaria. The move came in response to these governments' refusal to accept the Kremlin's demand that so-called "unfriendly nations" pay for gas in rubles. Moscow also continues reducing gas supplies to Germany via Nord Stream 1, reducing gas flows to around 20 percent of usual levels, ostensibly to conduct gas turbine maintenance, as of Aug. 11. Russian authorities may decide to restrict further or entirely cut off natural gas deliveries to other European countries over the coming weeks.

The Gas Transmission System Operator of Ukraine (GTSOU) has halted gas transit through the Sokhranivka gas metering station and the Novopskov gas compressor station, which are both located in Russian-occupied areas. The volume of Russian gas shipped to Europe via Ukraine has subsequently dropped by around one-third.

Maritime Disruptions
An agreement backed by the UN between Turkey, Russia, and Ukraine, signed on July 22 in Istanbul, assures safe passage for grain shipments from Odesa, Chornomorsk, and Yuzhne, to an inspection point near Istanbul. Ukrainian authorities have published the coordinates of the “blue corridor” to be followed. The Joint Coordination Center (JCC), in Turkey, monitors and implements this accord, which will be in place for 120 days from the day of signing and then extended by default. At least 12 ships loaded with grain have left the three permitted Ukrainian ports as of Aug. 11.

The International Maritime Organization has issued advisories concerning the ongoing danger posed to maritime navigation by drifting sea mines, primarily in the Black Sea's Northwest, West, and Southwest sectors. Ukraine and Russia have accused each other of releasing mines adrift in the Black Sea. Such mines have been discovered in the coastal waters of Turkey, Romania, and Bulgaria. These three countries have proficient naval ordnance disposal teams that typically tow mines to low-traffic areas for safe destruction.

Civilian vessels generally cannot operate in the northern Black Sea or the Sea of Azov; several civilian vessels were damaged in the region in the first weeks of the conflict, including two vessels sunk, and Russian naval forces have allegedly detained at least three others. Lloyds of London’s Joint War Committee, which issues guidance to international shipping insurance underwriters, publishes its Listed Areas which specifies sea areas of enhanced risk. NATO's Allied Maritime Command has a standing advisory in place warning mariners of the high risk of collateral damage and direct hits on civilian shipping in the Black Sea War Risk Area. The alliance also assesses the risk of electronic warfare measures, such as GPS or communications jamming, spoofing of automatic identification systems (AIS), and cyberattacks, as high in the region. Russian vessels and Russian-operated ships are banned, by international sanctions, from accessing EU, US, and UK ports.

Anti-Western Sentiment
Heightened anti-Western sentiment is possible in Russia and Belarus in reaction to the international response to the Kremlin's invasion of Ukraine. While there is currently no increased direct security threat to Western or other foreign nationals in Russia or Belarus, isolated incidents of low-level harassment are possible. A potential rise in anti-Western sentiment could also result in increased scrutiny, harassment, or coercion of foreign nationals by border guards, police, and other officials.

Advice

Confirm flight status with carriers; do not check out of accommodations until onward travel is confirmed. Avoid nonessential travel to affected border regions. Heed authorities' instructions; remain calm and cooperative if questioned by law enforcement officers or other officials. Carry proper identification, including a passport with a current Russian or Belarusian visa if one is required. Prepare for disruptions to card payments in Russia. Ensure alternative payment methods are available. Refrain from discussing the ongoing conflict in Ukraine or other politically sensitive topics, including on social media services.

Resources

European Union Aviation Safety Agency
French Ministry for Europe and Foreign Affairs
Russian Federal Service for Supervision of Communications, Information Technology and Mass Media
UK Travel Advice Russia