Ukraine: Military operations continue in southern and eastern regions as of Sept. 15 /update 180

Event

Combat and other military operations are continuing in Ukraine's southern and eastern regions, as of Sept. 15. Following a series of swift counteroffensives, Ukrainian forces are consolidating their control over the recaptured Kharkiv Region. Few ground assaults have been reported in recent days, as Russian forces remaining in the region after the fall of Kupyansk and Izyum Sept. 11-12, withdrew in the face of Ukraine's counteroffensive. Udy, Kozacha Lopan, Vovchansk, and other northern towns close to the Russian border are now under the control of Ukrainian forces. Despite their withdrawal, Russian forces have continued to shell the Kharkiv Region; the most affected areas are the city of Kharkiv and the surrounding district, as well as the Bogodukhovsky, Chuguevsky, Kupyansky, and Izyumsky districts.

Although Ukraine's major counteroffensive actions appear to have subsided, counterattacks are ongoing in parts of the northern Donetsk Region and western Luhansk Region. The Armed Forces of Ukraine likely seeks to push its advantage and secure improved tactical positions ahead of potential future offensives deeper into the Donbas. Ukrainian forces have recaptured Svyatohirsk, in the Donetsk Region, and combat has been reported near Lyman and on approaches to Kreminna, in the Luhansk Region.

Russia continues to conduct ground assaults in the Donetsk Region, as it continues its effort to capture towns and Ukrainian positions on approaches to Bakhmut. Combat continues to be reported in Soledar, north of Bakhmut, as well as around the Russian-controlled settlement of Kodema, located southeast of Bakhmut. Russian ground assaults are also frequently reported to the northwest and southwest of Donetsk city. Few territorial gains have been reported.

Russian missile attacks and airstrikes have also continued. A missile struck the city of Kryvyi Rih on Sept. 15, causing extensive damage to industrial areas less than 24 hours after eight missiles destroyed several hydraulic structures, including a dam wall, on the Inhulets River in the city. The strikes have prompted extensive flooding in the city. Russian missiles also struck Lozova, in the Kharkiv Region, while the city of Nikopol in the Dnipropetrovsk Region has come under heavy artillery bombardment in recent days. Elsewhere, Russia's intense bombardment of Mykolaiv has continued, particularly overnight on Sept. 13-14. Russian missiles and rockets struck residential and business districts of the city, killing two people and wounding six others.

In the Kherson Region, Ukrainian forces are continuing their counteroffensive, launched in late August. They have reportedly made gains on the western bank of the Dnieper River, recapturing Vysokopillia, Novovoznesenske, Bilohirka, Sukhyi Stavok, and Myroliubivka.

The Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant remains a focus of international attention following an inspection by IAEA officials. Ukrainian authorities shut down the final active reactor Sept. 11 after restoring the connection to the power grid. Russia and Ukraine have blamed each other for continued shelling in the vicinity; the plant had previously lost its primary connection to the power grid and relied on a reserve connection.

Disruptions and Shortages
As of Sept. 10, at least 87 vessels have left the Ukrainian ports of Odesa, Chornomorsk, and Yuzhne, carrying over two million metric tons of grains and other foodstuffs under the terms of the "Black Sea Initiative." No security incidents have been reported. Separately, the southwestern ports of Izmail, Reni, and Kiliia, on the Danube river, have achieved significant increases in trade, complementing the exports covered under the international accord.

Ukrainian Railways (UZ) has restored near-regular commuter services throughout much of the central and western parts of the country and continues to operate evacuation trains from most major cities, including Kyiv; however, rail services are subject to disruptions without warning. Civilian aviation remains suspended.

The government has extended Ukraine's nationwide martial law decree until Nov. 21. Curfews are in effect in multiple regions. In Kyiv Region, a curfew is in effect from 23:00-05:00. Nightly curfews are also in place in Mykolaiv from 22:00-06:00 and Zaporizhzhia Region from 22:00-05:00. Additionally, the nightly curfew in Kharkiv Region is in effect 19:00-07:00. Generally, civilians must stay indoors during curfew hours; exemptions exist for workers in critical infrastructure and persons seeking urgent medical care or bomb shelters. Depending on local developments, authorities may extend or amend curfew hours on short notice.

Intermittent telecommunications, internet, and utility disruptions continue across the country. Reports indicate a shortage of basic supplies, including groceries and pharmaceutical products, in multiple cities facing Russian ground assaults. Finally, the National Bank of Ukraine has limited foreign currency transfers and withdrawals.

Context

The events of the past few days have allowed Ukraine to seize offensive momentum; for the first time since the conflict began, Kyiv appears poised to dictate the terms of the next set of engagements. Much will depend on whether Ukrainian forces continue their offensive – into either the Luhansk or the Donetsk regions – or pause to consolidate their territorial gains. Following their withdrawal, Russian forces will likely seek to establish an effective defensive posture. Moscow's forces likely lack the combat potential, in fresh reserves and equipment, to mount an effective counterattack. There is likely to be a period of reappraisal of operational objectives on both sides. Neither Moscow nor Kyiv are likely to be able to achieve their overall objectives before the impact of winter, which will exacerbate the human, equipment, and logistics factors and further constrain operations.

Despite setbacks elsewhere, Russian troops will likely continue with limited ground attacks in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka directions in the short to medium term as the goal of capturing the entire Donbas will remain a key objective for the Kremlin. Recent reports strongly allege that Russia has made extensive use of prisoners in the battle for the Donbas. This would allow the Kremlin to maintain the tempo of attacks in this region, without necessitating a call for general mobilization.

The Ukrainian counteroffensive around Kherson continues to make limited progress. Without air superiority, and after Moscow increased its troop numbers in defensive positions, Kyiv is avoiding large-scale ground attacks. Instead, it is capitalizing on Western arms such as high mobility artillery rocket systems (HIMARS) to strike command posts, ammunition depots, and critical bridges across the Dnieper River, intending to cause significant logistical problems for the Kremlin. This will also likely have a considerable effect on the morale of Russian troops, as their routes for any potential retreat are cut off. Carefully targeted strikes against Russian military facilities in Crimea have also exposed Russian defensive weaknesses there. Partisan activity continues to disrupt Russian administrations in occupied areas, including targeted assassinations of Russian-appointed officials, particularly in the Zaporizhzhia Region.

As the conflict remains primarily concentrated in the east and the south of the country, particularly in the Donbas, Kharkiv, and Kherson regions, residents are increasingly returning to central and western areas, particularly Kyiv. Additionally, despite numerous foreign governments continuing to advise against travel to Ukraine, many business operations are resuming in the country's central and western regions; however, strikes continue to target critical infrastructure and other sites nationwide.

Advice

Avoid travel to active conflict zones in the Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions of Ukraine; consider leaving these areas by available ground transport if safe to do so. Exercise extreme caution if operating anywhere in Ukraine. You should shelter in place if there is fighting or airstrikes in the area. Stay away from windows and exterior walls if officials report incoming rocket or artillery fire. Follow the instructions of local security personnel, especially when instructed to seek refuge in air raid shelters. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, avoid off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance. In areas previously occupied by Russian forces, be aware of the possibility of booby traps.

Resources

Ukrainian Railways - UZ
Listing of Available Trains by City
State Border Guard Service