Ukraine: Military operations continue in southern and eastern regions as of Sept. 22 /update 181

Event

Combat and other military operations continue in Ukraine's southern and eastern regions as of Sept. 22. Ukrainian forces continue consolidating their control over the recaptured Kharkiv Region. Few ground assaults have been reported in recent days. Ukrainian forces repelled a limited Russian attack in eastern Kupyansk. Russian troops continue to shell targets in the Kharkiv region despite their withdrawal; a Russian missile struck the Pechenihy dam Sept. 22.

Unconfirmed Russian sources indicated that Russian troops repelled several Ukrainian attacks on Lyman and Yampil. In the Bakhmut area, Russian troops launched an unsuccessful attack on Zaitseve, Mykolaivka Druha, and Kurdyumivka, possibly indicating that the limited offensive operations of Russian forces between Bakhmut and Donetsk might be ongoing. Few territorial gains have been reported.

Russian missile attacks and airstrikes have also continued. Moscow-backed troops fired at least seven missiles on the city of Zaporizhzhia, killing one and injuring at least five civilians. Russian troops also shelled Nikopol and Kryvyi Rih in the Dnipropetrovsk region, killing one person and damaging civilian infrastructure.

In the Kherson Region, Ukrainian forces continue their counteroffensive, launched in late August. They have reportedly made gains on the western bank of the Dnieper River, recapturing Vysokopillia, Novovoznesenske, Bilohirka, Sukhyi Stavok, and Myroliubivka.

The Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant remains a focus of international attention following an inspection by IAEA officials. Ukrainian authorities shut down the final active reactor Sept. 11 after restoring the connection to the power grid. Russia and Ukraine have blamed each other for continued shelling in the vicinity; the plant had previously lost its primary connection to the power grid and relied on a reserve connection.

Disruptions and Shortages
As of Sept. 10, at least 87 vessels have left the Ukrainian ports of Odesa, Chornomorsk, and Yuzhne, carrying over two million metric tons of grains and other foodstuffs under the terms of the "Black Sea Initiative." No security incidents have been reported. Separately, the southwestern ports of Izmail, Reni, and Kiliia, on the Danube river, have achieved significant increases in trade, complementing the exports covered under the international accord.

Ukrainian Railways (UZ) has restored near-regular commuter services throughout much of the central and western parts of the country and continues to operate evacuation trains from most major cities, including Kyiv; however, rail services are subject to disruptions without warning. Civilian aviation remains suspended.

The government has extended Ukraine's nationwide martial law decree until Nov. 21. Curfews are in effect in multiple regions. In Kyiv Region, a curfew is in effect 23:00-05:00. Nightly curfews are also in place in Mykolaiv 22:00-06:00 and Zaporizhzhia Region 22:00-05:00. Additionally, the nightly curfew in Kharkiv Region is in effect 19:00-07:00. Generally, civilians must stay indoors during curfew hours; exemptions exist for workers in critical infrastructure and persons seeking urgent medical care or bomb shelters. Depending on local developments, authorities may extend or amend curfew hours on short notice.

Intermittent telecommunications, internet, and utility disruptions continue across the country. Reports indicate a shortage of basic supplies, including groceries and pharmaceutical products, in multiple cities facing Russian ground assaults. Finally, the National Bank of Ukraine has limited foreign currency transfers and withdrawals.

Context

Ukraine has seized the offensive momentum; Kyiv appears poised to dictate the terms of the next set of engagements for the first time since the conflict began. Much will depend on whether Ukrainian forces continue their offensive – into either the Luhansk or the Donetsk regions – or pause to consolidate their territorial gains. Following their withdrawal, Russian forces will likely seek to establish an effective defensive posture. Moscow's forces will likely lack the combat potential in fresh reserves and equipment to mount an effective counterattack in the short term. There is likely to be a period of reappraisal of operational objectives on both sides. The partial mobilization called by Vladimir Putin Sept. 21 could bring an estimated 300.000 thousand reservists to the frontlines in the next few months. However, neither Moscow nor Kyiv are likely to be able to achieve their overall objectives before the impact of winter, which will exacerbate the human, equipment, and logistics factors and further constrain operations.

Despite setbacks elsewhere, Russian troops will likely continue with limited ground attacks in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka directions in the short to medium term as the goal of capturing the entire Donbas will remain a key objective for the Kremlin. Recent reports strongly allege that Russia has made extensive use of prisoners in the battle for the Donbas. This would allow the Kremlin to maintain the tempo of attacks in this region, without necessitating a call for general mobilization.

The Ukrainian counteroffensive around Kherson continues to make limited progress. Without air superiority, and after Moscow increased its troop numbers in defensive positions, Kyiv is avoiding large-scale ground attacks. Instead, it is capitalizing on Western arms such as high mobility artillery rocket systems (HIMARS) to strike command posts, ammunition depots, and critical bridges across the Dnieper River, intending to cause significant logistical problems for the Kremlin. This will also likely have a considerable effect on the morale of Russian troops, as their routes for any potential retreat are cut off. Carefully targeted strikes against Russian military facilities in Crimea have also exposed Russian defensive weaknesses. Partisan activity continues to disrupt Russian administrations in occupied areas, including targeted assassinations of Russian-appointed officials, particularly in the Zaporizhzhia Region.

As the conflict remains primarily concentrated in the east and the south of the country, particularly in the Donbas, Kharkiv, and Kherson regions, residents are increasingly returning to central and western areas, particularly Kyiv. Additionally, despite numerous foreign governments continuing to advise against travel to Ukraine, many business operations are resuming in the country's central and western regions; however, strikes continue to target critical infrastructure and other sites nationwide.

Advice

Avoid travel to active conflict zones in the Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions of Ukraine; consider leaving these areas by available ground transport if safe to do so. Exercise extreme caution if operating anywhere in Ukraine. You should shelter in place if there is fighting or airstrikes in the area. Stay away from windows and exterior walls if officials report incoming rocket or artillery fire. Follow the instructions of local security personnel, especially when instructed to seek refuge in air raid shelters. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, avoid off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance. In areas previously occupied by Russian forces, be aware of booby traps.

Resources

Ukrainian Railways - UZ
Listing of Available Trains by City
State Border Guard Service