South Africa: Load shedding likely to occur regularly through mid-2023 /update 1

Event

South Africa will likely remain susceptible to regular load shedding through mid-2023 and likely beyond if additional power production capacity is not made available. Power cuts could possibly reach stage 6 and beyond during major crisis periods. The South African utility provider, Eskom, continues efforts to maintain and repair infrastructure; however, unplanned events, such as unit breakdowns, are likely to continue to occur which will force Eskom to implement load shedding to prevent a total blackout.

Temporary commercial and communications disruptions are possible while load shedding and unscheduled disruptions are taking place; cellular and mobile services could be affected. Traffic disruptions and longer driving times are possible during these periods due to malfunctioning traffic signals. Trains may also experience delays if outages impact signaling devices or overhead wires. Power outages could also result in the temporary unavailability of essential services such as ATMs and filling stations. Water supply outages or decreases in water pressure may occur in areas that rely on electrical pumps for water flow.

There is an increased security threat during power outages. Blackouts could adversely affect security protocols, including alarm systems and electronic fences; opportunistic criminal activity increases during electricity outages. Malfunctioning traffic signals increase the risk of accidents at intersections, and the lack of public lighting may elevate the risk of driving at night.

Context

Load shedding requires switching off parts of South Africa's electric grid in a planned and controlled manner due to insufficient capacity or to avoid a countrywide blackout. The higher the stage, the more electricity needs to be saved and the longer the blackouts last for.

• Stage-1 load shedding: Allows for up to 1,000MW of electricity to be removed from the power grid, leading to power supply cuts in the impacted area three times over a four-day period for two hours at a time, or three times over an eight-day period for four hours at a time.

• Stage-2 load shedding: Allows for up to 2,000MW of electricity to be removed from the power grid, leading to power supply cuts in the impacted area six times over a four-day period for two hours at a time, or six times over an eight-day period for four hours at a time.

• Stage-3 load shedding: Allows for up to 3,000MW of electricity to be removed from the power grid, leading to power supply cuts in the impacted area nine times over a four-day period for two hours at a time, or nine times over an eight-day period for four hours at a time.

• Stage-4 load shedding: Allows for up to 4,000MW to be removed from the power grid, leading to power supply cuts in the impacted area 12 times over a four-day period for two hours at a time, or 12 times over an eight-day period for four hours at a time.

• Stage-5 load shedding: Allows for up to 5,000MW to be removed from the power grid, leading to power supply cuts in the impacted area 15 times over a four-day period for two hours at a time, or 15 times over an eight-day period for four hours at a time.

• Stage-6 load shedding: Allows for up to 6,000MW to be removed from the power grid, leading to power supply cuts in the impacted area 18 times over a four-day period for four hours at a time.

• Stage-7 load shedding: Allows for up to 7,000MW to be removed from the power grid, leading to power supply cuts in the impacted area for ten hours per day.

• Stage-8 load shedding: Allows for up to 8,000MW to be removed from the power grid, leading to power supply cuts in the impacted for twelve hours per day.

Despite the government's best efforts, the situation is steadily worsening. South Africa experienced over 150 days of load shedding in 2022, up from 75 in 2021 and 54 in 2020. There are no clear indications of a sudden improvement and there is a possibility that load shedding could worsen in the coming months. South Africa has not yet reached stages 7 or 8 of load shedding.

Authorities in the City of Cape Town are likely to continue to implement support measures and supply electricity during load shedding periods. Typically, city supply will move the stage down one level from the Eskom-announced load shedding level.

Advice

Develop or review business continuity plan (BCP) sections regarding utility outages. Identify business-critical functions that require a power supply. Invest in generators and, if applicable, uninterruptible power supply (UPS) units. Power laptops, tablets, mobile phones, and other business or travel-critical appliances regularly. Download available warning apps covering planned or unplanned power outages and monitor announcements from the utility.

Resources

Eskom load-shedding schedules
Eskom (Twitter)
City of Cape Town (Twitter)
City of Tshwane (Twitter)
City of Johannesburg (Twitter)