Ukraine: Military operations continue in southern and eastern regions as of Oct. 2 /update 183

Event

Combat and other military operations continue in Ukraine's southern and eastern regions as of Oct. 2. Ukrainian forces recaptured the city of Lyman in northern Donetsk Region Oct. 1; Russian troops in Lyman evacuated east towards Kreminna as Ukrainian forces encircled the city. Lyman had been a key logistics hub for Russian forces operating in northern Ukraine since its capture in May. Russia's defeat in the city comes one day after Moscow officially annexed Donetsk and four other Russian-occupied regions in Ukraine to the Russian Federation. Sporadic combat is reported in some areas of the city as Ukraine consolidates control.

Ukraine will likely continue attempts to push Russian forces further east in Kharkiv and the north of Donetsk regions while consolidating their hold on previously recaptured territory. Reports indicate Ukraine has also recaptured the settlements of Drobycheve and Stavky, close to Lyman. In Kharkiv Region, Ukrainian troops continued to advance further east of Kupyansk by recapturing Kurylivka. Russian troops continue to shell targets in Kharkiv Region despite their withdrawal, particularly along the line of contact and the international border with Russia.

Russian forces continue to launch attacks on Bakhmut from the northeast, east, and south but have made no tangible territorial gains in recent days. Ukrainian forces also continue to repel Russian attacks further south in Donetsk Region around Avdiivka and Marinka. Reports suggest Russian offensive actions in these areas are lessening in frequency and intensity, indicating likely increasing fatigue among Russian forces.

Russian missile attacks and airstrikes have also continued. Moscow-backed troops struck a civilian convoy near Kupyask Oct. 1, killing at least 24 people; this follows a strike on a humanitarian convoy on the outskirts of Zaporizhzhia Sept. 30, killing at least 30 people and injuring 88 more. Russian troops also continue to shell Mykolaiv in addition to Nikopol and Kryvyi Rih in Dnipropetrovsk Region.

In Kherson Region, Ukrainian forces continue their counteroffensive, launched in late August. Ukrainian officials are keeping tight control of information regarding the offensive but have stated that Moscow has been deploying newly mobilized troops to the frontline in this region. There have been no significant territorial changes in Zaporizhzhia Region for several days.

Disruptions and Shortages
As of Sept. 29, almost 240 vessels have left the Ukrainian ports of Odesa, Chornomorsk, and Yuzhne, carrying over five million metric tons of grains and other foodstuffs under the terms of the "Black Sea Initiative." No security incidents have been reported. Separately, the southwestern ports of Izmail, Reni, and Kiliia, on the Danube river, have achieved significant increases in trade, complementing the exports covered under the international accord.

Ukrainian Railways (UZ) has restored near-regular commuter services throughout much of the central and western parts of the country and continues to operate evacuation trains from most major cities, including Kyiv; however, rail services are subject to disruptions without warning. Civilian aviation remains suspended.

The government has extended Ukraine's nationwide martial law decree until Nov. 21. Curfews are in effect in multiple regions. In Kyiv Region, a curfew is in effect 23:00-05:00. Nightly curfews are also in place in Mykolaiv 22:00-06:00 and Zaporizhzhia Region 22:00-05:00. Additionally, the nightly curfew in Kharkiv Region is in effect 22:00-06:00. Generally, civilians must stay indoors during curfew hours; exemptions exist for workers in critical infrastructure and persons seeking urgent medical care or bomb shelters. Depending on local developments, authorities may extend or amend curfew hours on short notice.

Intermittent telecommunications, internet, and utility disruptions continue across the country. Reports indicate a shortage of basic supplies, including groceries and pharmaceutical products, in multiple cities facing Russian ground assaults. Finally, the National Bank of Ukraine has limited foreign currency transfers and withdrawals.

Context

Ukraine has seized the offensive momentum; Kyiv appears poised to dictate the terms of the next set of engagements for the first time since the conflict began. Much will depend on whether Ukrainian forces continue their offensive – into either the Luhansk or the Donetsk regions – or pause to consolidate their territorial gains. Following their withdrawal, Russian forces will likely seek to establish an effective defensive posture. Moscow's forces will likely lack the combat potential in fresh reserves and equipment to mount an effective counterattack in the short term. There is likely to be a period of reappraisal of operational objectives on both sides. The partial mobilization called by Vladimir Putin Sept. 21 could bring an estimated 300.000 thousand reservists to the frontlines in the next few months. However, neither Moscow nor Kyiv are likely to be able to achieve their overall objectives before the impact of winter, which will exacerbate the human, equipment, and logistics factors and further constrain operations.

Russian President Vladimir Putin staged a ceremony Sept. 30 to officially annex the four Russian-occupied regions of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson to the Russian Federation; this is despite Russian forces not controlling the entirety of any of those regions. The move follows supposed referendums carried out by separatist officials in those regions Sept. 23-27; international governments criticized the referendums as shams carried out under extreme coercion and will refuse to recognize the annexations. Official annexation gives the Kremlin a possible excuse to escalate hostilities by claiming Ukrainian military operations in those regions as attacks on sovereign Russian territory. The move also indicates Moscow's likely long-term goal of taking full control of at least those four regions.

Despite setbacks elsewhere, Russian troops will likely continue with limited ground attacks in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka directions in the short to medium term as the goal of capturing the entire Donbas will remain a key objective for the Kremlin. Recent reports strongly allege that Russia has made extensive use of prisoners in the battle for the Donbas. This would allow the Kremlin to maintain the tempo of attacks in this region, without necessitating a call for general mobilization.

The Ukrainian counteroffensive around Kherson continues to make limited progress. Without air superiority, and after Moscow increased its troop numbers in defensive positions, Kyiv is avoiding large-scale ground attacks. Instead, it is capitalizing on Western arms such as high mobility artillery rocket systems (HIMARS) to strike command posts, ammunition depots, and critical bridges across the Dnieper River, intending to cause significant logistical problems for the Kremlin. This will also likely have a considerable effect on the morale of Russian troops, as their routes for any potential retreat are cut off. Carefully targeted strikes against Russian military facilities in Crimea have also exposed Russian defensive weaknesses. Partisan activity continues to disrupt Russian administrations in occupied areas, including targeted assassinations of Russian-appointed officials, particularly in Zaporizhzhia Region.

As the conflict remains primarily concentrated in the east and the south of the country, particularly in the Donbas, Kharkiv, and Kherson regions, residents are increasingly returning to central and western areas, particularly Kyiv. Additionally, despite numerous foreign governments continuing to advise against travel to Ukraine, many business operations are resuming in the country's central and western regions; however, strikes continue to target critical infrastructure and other sites nationwide.

Advice

Avoid travel to active conflict zones in the Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions of Ukraine; consider leaving these areas by available ground transport if safe to do so. Exercise extreme caution if operating anywhere in Ukraine. You should shelter in place if there is fighting or airstrikes in the area. Stay away from windows and exterior walls if officials report incoming rocket or artillery fire. Follow the instructions of local security personnel, especially when instructed to seek refuge in air raid shelters. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, avoid off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance. In areas previously occupied by Russian forces, be aware of booby traps.

Resources

Ukrainian Railways - UZ
Listing of Available Trains by City
State Border Guard Service