DRC: Clashes between M23 rebels and security forces likely to persist in North Kivu Province through at least mid-January /update 6

Event

Fighting between the Armed Forces of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (FARDC) and suspected members of the M23 rebel group is likely to persist through at least late January in North Kivu Province. Clashes continued Jan. 2-4, with M23 rebels reportedly taking control of the Kisharo area Jan. 2 and the Nyamilima area Jan. 4 following prior clashes with DRC armed forces in both areas.

The M23 rebels previously announced that they would withdraw from Kibumba, a town located about 20 km (12 miles) from Goma, Dec. 23. As of Jan. 4, reports indicate rebels remain stationed in most parts of the area. It remains unclear whether the M23 will withdraw from Rumangabo by Jan. 5 as announced by officials from the East African Community (EAC) regional force.

Heightened security is almost certain in the affected area in the coming weeks. Further violence is also likely. Officials could implement movement-restrictive measures. Clashes and security force responses could also impact routes in the area, including the N2 road between Goma and Rutshuru. Locals may stage further protests in the region, including Goma, to denounce the perceived inaction of security forces. Such protests have been frequent in recent weeks.

Context

Since November 2021, the M23 rebel group has increased attacks targeting armed forces in the eastern DRC, while tensions have increased between Rwanda and the DRC. In June, the M23 captured the town of Bunagana in the Rutshuru Territory and began marching toward Goma. Rebels took control of several localities along the strategic road connecting Butembo and Goma. Concerns over the potential capture of Goma have grown following fighting between the M23 rebel group and the FARDC near Kibumba, located about 20 km (13 miles) north of Goma in mid-November.

The M23 is seeking to pressure the government to honor a peace agreement signed in 2013, which allows the reintegration of the armed forces into society, among other issues. In April, the group took part in a truce with the government; however, it did not attend peace talks launched between the government and armed groups in Kenya.

On Nov. 25, leaders of the East African Community (EAC) agreed on a cessation of hostilities in eastern DRC. Although the ceasefire conditions include the withdrawal of M23 rebels from occupied territories and their disarmament, the continued deployment of the EAC regional force, and the resumption of dialogue between the DRC and Rwanda, M23 rebels have not signed the agreement and are therefore not bound to it. The M23 has repeatedly asked for direct dialogue with DRC, which has so far refused. Kenya has already deployed about 900 troops in Goma, while other contingents are expected to be operational in the short term. While M23 operations may continue over the coming days, the capture of Goma appears unlikely.

Advice

Consider deferring nonessential travel to conflict-affected areas in eastern DRC until the situation stabilizes. Maintain contact with diplomatic missions. Consult local security partners on the viability of traveling in and around the impacted locations. Travel in convoy and during daylight hours only. Adhere to directives issued by local authorities. Reconfirm the status of public transportation, road routes and border crossings before departure.