Indian Ocean: Very Intense Tropical Cyclone Freddy tracking west-southwestward in the Indian Ocean early Feb. 20 /update 3

Event

Very Intense Tropical Cyclone Freddy is tracking west-southwestward in the Indian Ocean early Feb. 20. As of 07:00 MUT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 420 km (261 miles) east-northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius.

Forecast models indicate that the system will weaken slightly into an intense tropical cyclone and pass north of the main island of Mauritius and Reunion between the afternoon of Feb. 20 and early Feb. 21. Freddy will likely weaken further as it continues to track west-southwestward towards Madagascar. The storm system is forecast to make landfall as an intense tropical cyclone over the central-eastern coast of Madagascar late Feb. 21. Freddy is then forecast to weaken rapidly into a moderate tropical storm as it tracks westward across south-central Madagascar before exiting into the Mozambique Channel late Feb. 22. The system will then briefly strengthen into a severe tropical storm as it tracks west-northwestward and makes landfall over the central-eastern coast of Mozambique early Feb. 24. After landfall, the storm is forecast to track westwards over central Mozambique then southeastern Zimbabwe through early Feb. 25. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur in the coming days.

As of early Feb. 20, the Mauritius Meteorological Services have issued a Class 3 cyclone warning (level 3 out of 4) for Mauritius due to Freddy. Weather conditions on Mauritius are likely to deteriorate rapidly from the afternoon of Feb. 20. Authorities have cancelled more than a dozen Air Mauritius (MK) flights to and from Sir Seewoosagur Ramgoolam International Airport (MRU) Feb. 19-21.

Meteo France has issued an orange cyclone alert (the second-highest level on a four-tier scale) across Reunion. A deterioration in weather conditions, most notably strong winds and rough seas, is forecast from late Feb. 20. Orange high wave warnings (the middle level on a three-tier scale) are in place across the northern and eastern coastlines. Airline operators Air Austral (UU) and Air France (AF) have modified their flight schedules to and from Reunion Feb. 20-21 due to the passage of the storm system. Schools, universities, and nurseries are closed Feb. 20; the Papang cable car in Saint-Denis is closed from Feb. 20 until further notice.

Madagascar's General Directorate of Meteorology has forecast that Freddy will make landfall between Vatomandry and Manakara late Feb. 21 with winds of around 175 kph (109 mph). Rainfall accumulations of more than 18 cm (7 inches) and waves greater than 10 meters (33 feet) in height are possible in the vicinity of where the storm makes landfall. Yellow cyclone warnings (the middle level on a three-tier scale) are in place for Atsinanana, Fitovinany, and Vatovavy regions. Green cyclone alerts are in effect across Alaotra-Mangoro, Amoron'i Mania, Analamanga, Analanjirofo, Atsimo Atsinanana, Ihorombe, Itasy, Matsiatra Ambony, Menabe, and Vakinankaratra regions, as well as Ankazoabo-Atsimo, Beroroha, Morombe, Sakaraha, and Toliara I-II districts in Atsimo-Andrefana Region.

Authorities will likely issue new warnings or update existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous. The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions; it could also render some bridges and roadways impassable. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding may increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Meteo France Reunion
Madagascar General Directorate of Meteorology