Turkey, Syria: Adverse weather forecast across southern Turkey and northern Syria through at least March 19 /update 4

Event

Adverse weather is forecast across much of southern Turkey (Turkiye) through at least March 19. Heavy rainfall and thunderstorms are forecast across Mediterranean coastal regions on March 17 and across parts of southeastern Turkey late March 17-19. Heavy downpours could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and landslides on unstable slopes.

As of early March 16, the Turkish State Meteorological Service has issued the following weather warnings:

• Orange thunderstorm warnings (the middle level on a three-tier scale): Antalya Province.

• Orange heavy rainfall warnings: Adiyaman, Gaziantep, Kahramanmaras, and Sanliurfa provinces.

• Yellow thunderstorm warnings: Adana, Isparta, Mersin, and Mugla provinces.

• Yellow heavy rainfall warnings: Burdur, Diyarbakir, Elazig, Hatay, Isparta, Kilis, Malatya, and Osmaniye provinces.

Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days.

Heavy rainfall since March 14 has resulted in flooding across Adiyaman and Sanliurfa provinces. The provinces are still recovering from the magnitude-7.8 and magnitude-7.5 earthquakes that occurred around 37 km (23 miles) west-northwest of Gaziantep on Feb. 6. Heavy rainfall has exacerbated the damages and disrupted recovery efforts. The earthquakes destroyed thousands of homes; many residents live in tents and container homes in numerous temporary accommodation centers across the region. As of March 17, authorities have confirmed 14 flood-related fatalities in Sanliurfa Province and two fatalities in Adiyaman Province. Flash flooding swept away cars and temporary housing. A bridge collapse led to the closure of a section of the Aidyaman-Celikhan Highway.

The adverse weather will also likely impact areas of northern Syria that were also affected by last month's earthquakes. There have been reports of flooding ongoing in parts of the region and further showers are forecast across parts of Aleppo, Ar-Raqqah, Idlib, and Latakia governorates over the coming days. Many people in this region are also still in temporary accommodation following the damage caused by the earthquakes. Due to the arid nature of the region and poor stormwater management in some urban areas, even minor rainfall accumulations could quickly result in episodes of flash flooding. Flooding is possible in streams and wadis (dry riverbeds).

Hazardous Conditions
The storm could produce heavy rainfall, strong winds, and isolated thunderstorm activity in the affected provinces. Where sustained heavy rainfall occurs, flash and areal flooding are possible. Such flooding is possible in low-lying communities near watercourses and other large bodies of water and in urban areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites downstream of large reservoirs may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Power outages are possible across the affected areas.

Transport
The severe weather could contribute to transport disruptions throughout the region. Traffic and commercial trucking delays might occur along regional highways. Flooding downpours could inundate some low-lying roads in areas with poor drainage. Strong winds might also pose a hazard to high-profile vehicles. Hazardous weather conditions might cause flight delays and cancellations at airports in the region. Authorities may temporarily suspend port operations or close beach fronts if strong winds trigger hazardous sea conditions.

Advice

Monitor local media for weather-related updates and advisories. Confirm all transport reservations and business arrangements before traveling in the affected area. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where severe weather is forecast; plan for possible supply chain disruptions throughout the affected areas. Stay away from elevated streams, creeks, and other watercourses that are prone to flash flooding. Do not attempt to navigate flooded roadways. Charge battery-powered devices in the case of prolonged electricity outages.