Vanuatu: Tropical Cyclone Kevin tracking southeastward away from Vanuatu as of March 4 /update 3

Event

Tropical Cyclone Kevin is tracking southeastward away from Vanuatu March 4. As of 14:00 VUT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 496 km (308 miles) southeast of Port Vila, Vanuatu.

Kevin has strengthened into a Category 5 Severe Tropical Cyclone. Forecast models indicate that Kevin will weaken as it tracks southeastward away from southern Vanuatu into the South Pacific Ocean through early March 6, passing well south of Fiji and Tonga. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast; changes could occur in the coming days.

As of March 4, the Vanuatu Meteorological Service has issued a tropical cyclone warning; a red alert is in place for Tafea Province. Isolated heavy rainfall is forecast over Tafea Province; flash flooding is likely in low-lying areas, areas close to river banks, and along the coast. Seas will be very rough, with heavy swells likely over Vanuatu's southern and central waters. All sea-going vessels are advised to refrain from going out to sea until Kevin has tracked away from Vanuatu waters.

Meteo France New Caledonia has rescinded the cyclone pre-alert warning, but yellow (lowest level on a three-tier scale) strong swell warnings remain in place for the Loyalty Islands Province and Isle of Pine.

The Fiji Meteorological Service has issued a heavy rain warning for the Yasawa and Mamanuca groups, northern Ba and Ra, the Greater Nadi/Lautoka/Ba area, Sigatoka, interior Ba and Nadroga-Navosa, Kadavu and nearby smaller islands, and the Lau and Lomaiviti groups. A heavy rain alert is in effect for the rest of Fiji. A flash flood advisory is in place for flood-prone areas, small streams, and low-lying areas in northern Ba and Ra, the Greater Nadi/Lautoka/Ba area, Sigatoka, and interior Ba and Nadroga-Navosa. Authorities will likely update and possibly extend the coverage of weather alerts over the coming days as the storm progresses.

Vanuatu is still recovering from the passage of Tropical Cyclone Judy Feb. 28-early March 2. Officials declared a state of emergency for the country following impact assessments after the passage of the system. Authorities are maintaining emergency shelters in Port Vila and other at-risk areas for those who cannot shelter safely at home; more than 300 people are sheltering in the evacuation centers. Air Vanuatu (NF) had suspended all international and domestic flights until further notice; the airline will likely provide service updates after damage assessments on airports are completed. Schools and businesses are closed in affected areas. Much of northern and central Vanuatu is without power. Reports indicate that there are damaged buildings in several parts of Port Vila and many destroyed houses on Epi Island. Most roads have sustained damage. Communications remain disrupted in the southern islands of Erromango and Tanna. Damage assessments are ongoing, and it may take some time before the full extent of the storm's impact is known, especially in remote islands where communications are limited.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a severe health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical cyclone conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Fiji Meteorological Service
Meteo France New Caledonia
Tonga Meteorological Services
Vanuatu Meteorological Service