Thailand: Protests possible nationwide through at least late June amid probe into prime minister front runner

Event

Protests are possible across Thailand through at least late June following reports of a probe into prime minister front runner Pita Limjaroenrat from the opposition Move Forward Party. According to local reports, the Election Commission will investigate if Pita violated an election rule prohibiting candidates from holding shares in a media company. The decision comes after the Election Commission dismissed three previously filed complaints against Pita on June 9.

Activists could gather at the Election Commission office in Bangkok to denounce the probe. Other possible demonstration sites in Bangkok include government buildings like the Government House, Parliament Complex, Supreme Court, and popular gathering venues such as the Democracy Monument, Lumpini Park, Victory Monument, and Asok, Din Daeng, and Ratchaprasong intersections. Rallies may also occur in other urban centers nationwide, such as Chiang Mai. Dozens to hundreds of people could participate in any gathering.

Authorities will likely impose heightened security measures, including deploying additional personnel at demonstration sites. Localized transport and business disruptions are possible near rallies, particularly if activists occupy nearby streets. Security personnel may try to disperse gatherings if they are disruptive. Clashes between protesters and police are possible.

Context

The official results of Thailand's May 14 general election are pending, and the Election Commission must certify the results for 95 percent of constituencies by July 13. The Election Commission ordered a recount of ballots from 47 polling stations June 7 and is currently investigating over 280 cases of irregularities.

Thailand's opposition Move Forward Party (MFP), which won the majority of votes in the recent general election, signed an agreement with seven other parties in May to form a coalition. The MFP is currently engaging in negotiations with senators to secure the remaining votes needed for the formation of a majority government.

While protest activity in the lead-up to and following voting day has generally remained low, the potential for small-scale demonstrations remains. Any military involvement or interference in the election process after the announcement of the official result could contribute to an escalation of public unrest. Additionally, separatist militants could stage attacks in Thailand's restive Deep South region following the general election.

Advice

Avoid any protests due to possible clashes. If any violence occurs nearby, immediately leave the area and seek shelter at a safe nongovernmental building. Plan for possible localized transport and business disruptions during any demonstrations. Allow additional time for travel and use alternative routes to circumvent rally sites. Remain cooperative if stopped by officials for security checks. Heed all official traffic and security advisories.