Ukraine: Showers and storms forecast across much of the country through June 15 /update 38

Event

Ukraine General Weather Forecast
Showers and storms are forecast across much of Ukraine through June 15. Moderately intense thunderstorms are expected in western Ukraine June 8, with more isolated showers and storms likely in central and northern areas June 8 and northern and western regions June 9. Further showers and thunderstorms are forecast in northern, southern, and western regions June 10 and storms of varying intensity are expected across much of the country from June 11 through at least 13. Downpours may be heavy at times and storms may be accompanied by strong wind gusts, hail, and lightning. Heavy downpours could trigger flooding in affected areas, and strong winds could cause property damage and power outages. Temperatures are expected to initially be above the average for the time of year across most of Ukraine June 8-10, with maximums of around 21-29 C (70-84 F) forecast in most areas, before a slight drop to around average from June 11, with maximums of around 16-23 C (61-73 F).

Disruptions are ongoing across parts of Kherson Region as of June 8 following the apparent intentional destruction of the Kakhovka Dam June 6. The large volume of water discharged from the dam's reservoir has caused widespread flooding along the banks of the lower Dnieper River, flooding dozens of towns and villages. Authorities have reported at least eight fatalities associated with the flooding and at least 6,000 people have been evacuated from both Ukrainian- and Russian-controlled areas on either bank of the river. Thousands of people in the surrounding areas have been left without access to clean drinking water. The Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center has issued the highest level hydrological warnings for the lower Dnieper sub-basin in Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions. Orange hydrological warnings (the middle level on a five-tier scale) are also in place for the middle Dnieper sub-basin in Cherkasy Region. Red fire hazard warnings (the lowest of two warning levels) have been issued across much of Ukraine, with the exception of some eastern and western regions. Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days.

Conflict Area Forecast
Seven-day forecast for major cities and logistical hubs in the conflict zone and bordering areas of Russia:

• Kharkiv: Partly cloudy with little precipitation June 8-10 and June 13-14. Showers and possible thunderstorms forecast June 11-12. Maximum daytime temperatures 18-28 C (64-82 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures of 11-17 C (52-63 F).

• Luhansk: Partly cloudy with little precipitation June 8-10 and June 14. Showers and possible thunderstorms forecast June 11-13. Maximum daytime temperatures 19-28 C (66-82 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 12-19 C (54-66 F).

• Donetsk: Partly cloudy with little precipitation June 8-9. Showers forecast June 10-14, with possible thunderstorms June 11-14. Maximum daytime temperatures 19-28 C (66-82 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 12-19C (54-66 F).

• Mariupol: Partly cloudy with little precipitation June 8-9. Showers forecast June 10-14, with possible thunderstorms June 11-14. Maximum daytime temperatures 20-25 C (68-77 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 17-21 C (63-70 F).

• Kherson: Partly cloudy with little precipitation June 8-9. Showers and possible thunderstorms forecast June 10-14. Maximum daytime temperatures 19-29 C (66-84 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 13-19 C (55-66 F).

• Zaporizhzhia: Partly cloudy with little precipitation June 8-9. Showers and possible thunderstorms forecast June 10-14. Maximum daytime temperatures 19-28 C (66-82 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 13-19 C (55-66 F).

• Belgorod, Russia: Light rainfall forecast June 8-10 and June 12. Cloudy and dry June 11 and June 13-14. Maximum daytime temperatures 18-28 C (64-82 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 12-15 C (54-59 F).

• Valuyki, Russia: Light rainfall forecast June 8 and June 12. Partly cloudy with little precipitation June 9-11 and June 13-14. Maximum daytime temperatures 20-29 C (68-84 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 11-15 C (52-59 F).

• Rostov, Russia: Partly cloudy with little precipitation June 8-11 and June 13-14. Rainfall forecast June 12. Maximum daytime temperatures 26-29 C (79-84 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 15-18 C (59-64 F).

Most rivers in Ukraine drain southerly into the Black and Azov seas. Heavy rainfall in the north is likely to result in water level rises in the rivers in the southern part of the country, even if no significant rain falls in the area.

As of June 8, the Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring has issued the following warnings across areas bordering Ukraine:

• Orange forest fire (the middle level on a three-tier scale): Belgorod Oblast.

• Yellow thunderstorm warnings: Belgorod and Bryansk oblasts.

• Yellow food warnings: Krasnodar Kray.

• Yellow water level warnings: Rostov Oblast.

• Yellow forest fire warnings: Kursk, Rostov, and Voronezh oblasts.

• Yellow strong wind warnings: Krasnodar Kray.

Transport
Following periods of sustained heavy rainfall, floodwaters and debris flows may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Ponding on road surfaces could cause hazardous driving conditions on regional highways. Authorities could temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters. Severe weather could also trigger flight delays and cancelations at airports, and flooding could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are likely in areas that see heavy rainfall and potential track inundation.

Context

Conditions are likely to become more conducive for large-scale military operations during the summer months. After the muddy conditions caused by thawing snow and spring rains have eased, the harder ground will make troop movements easier. Warmer temperatures will also mean troops are able to stay out in the field for more extended periods of time. Clearer skies provide better visibility for aerial reconnaissance; however, increased foliage also improves the ability to conceal positions. Although conditions will generally be more favorable, periods of heavy rainfall are still possible during summer storms, especially during early summer, bringing wet and stormy conditions that may hamper military operations. Other environmental threats such as forest fires and extreme temperatures could also impact operations during the warmer months of the year.

Advice

Monitor local media for weather updates and related advisories. Confirm all transport reservations and business appointments before travel. Make allowances for localized travel delays and potential supply chain disruptions where severe weather is forecast. Charge battery-powered devices in case of prolonged electricity outages.

Resources

Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center
Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring