Thailand: Protests possible nationwide through at least mid-July following general elections /update 1

Event

Protests are possible across Thailand through at least mid-July following the May 14 general elections as the political situation in the country remains uncertain. The Election Commission endorsed all 500 seats of the lower house June 19, and Parliament will select a house speaker July 4. The vote for prime minister is scheduled July 13. Activists could gather outside the Parliament Complex in Bangkok during the House Speaker selection July 4. Other possible demonstration sites in Bangkok include government buildings like the Election Commission, Government House, Supreme Court, and popular gathering venues such as the Democracy Monument, Lumpini Park, Victory Monument, and Asok, Din Daeng, and Ratchaprasong intersections. Rallies may also occur in other urban centers nationwide, such as Chiang Mai. Dozens to hundreds of people could participate in any gathering.

Authorities will likely impose heightened security measures, including deploying additional personnel at demonstration sites. Localized transport and business disruptions are possible near rallies, particularly if activists occupy nearby streets. Security personnel may try to disperse gatherings if they are disruptive. Clashes between protesters and police are possible.

Context

The opposition Move Forward Party (MFP), which secured the majority of votes in the May 14 general election, has formed a coalition with the previously dominant pro-democracy Pheu Thai Party and six other smaller parties. However, the formation of the Move Forward government is still uncertain amid internal conflicts within the coalition, conservative opposition to MFP's policies, and ongoing legal challenges.

Although protest activity in the lead-up to and following voting day has generally remained low, any delay in the political transition could trigger demonstrations and economic instability. Any military involvement or interference in the election process after the announcement of the official result could contribute to an escalation of public unrest. The police have increased the number of crowd control units and detention facilities in anticipation of possible protests. Additionally, separatist militants could stage attacks in Thailand's restive Deep South region following the general election.

Advice

Avoid any protests due to possible clashes. If any violence occurs nearby, immediately leave the area and seek shelter at a safe nongovernmental building. Plan for possible localized transport and business disruptions during any demonstrations. Allow additional time for travel and use alternative routes to circumvent rally sites. Remain cooperative if stopped by officials for security checks. Heed all official traffic and security advisories.