Philippine Sea: Tropical Storm Haikui tracking west-northwestward as of early Aug. 31 /update 1

Event

Tropical Storm Haikui is tracking west-northwestward in the central Philippine Sea early Aug. 31. As of 06:00 JST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 893 km (555 miles) southeast of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa Prefecture, Japan.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will strengthen into a typhoon as it continues west-northwestward across the Philippine Sea early Sept. 1 before making a close approach to the Miyako Islands, Okinawa Prefecture, Japan, early Sept. 2, passing northeast of the islands and entering the East China Sea. Haikui is likely to track northwestward towards Zhejiang Province, China, making landfall over the province early Sept. 3 before tracking north-northwest across Zhejiang, then southeastern Anhui provinces through Sept. 4, and dissipating over far southwestern Jiangsu Province early Sept. 5. Uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days.

As of early Aug. 31, the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has issued yellow (lowest level on a three-tier scale) thunderstorm, high wave, and storm surge advisories across the Ryukyu Islands. The Taiwan Central Weather Bureau has issued orange (second-lowest level on a four-tier scale) extremely heavy rain advisories across southern Pingtung and Taitung counties and yellow heavy rain advisories across Hualien, northeastern Pingtung, and Yilan counties and New Taipei City. Authorities will likely issue new warnings or update existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)
Taiwan Central Weather Bureau
China Meteorological Administration