Myanmar: Armed clashes between military and anti-regime groups likely to persist nationwide through at least early January /update 9

The instability that emerged following Myanmar's Feb. 2021 military coup is likely to continue affecting the country through at least early January. The conflict between the military troops (Tatmadaw) and the National Unity Government's (NUG) People's Defense Force (PDF), as well as several ethnic armed organizations (EAOs), has resulted in the deaths of tens of thousands of people and the displacement of more than a million others. On Oct. 27, fragmented resistance groups launched a coordinated offensive - colloquially referred to as Offensive 1027 - by intensifying attacks initially in northern Shan State. The offensive has since spread to several surrounding areas in the north and western parts of Myanmar, including the Shan, Kayin, Kayah, Mon, Rakhine, Bago states, and Mandalay, Sagaing, and Magway regions. Resistance forces have repeatedly targeted various military installations, regime-controlled villages, security checkpoints, and major interstate highways.

As of early December, the renewed offensive has caused significant disruptions to ground, air, and land border transits in the impacted areas. Blockades are also causing associated shortages in fuel and other essential supplies. The surge has displaced nearly 350,000 people in the affected regions. Resistance forces have also reportedly captured several towns and some border crossings near China. In Laukkaing District, Shan State, the recent surge has affected the movement of thousands of foreign nationals. Various non-profit organizations have temporarily suspended operations in some areas, including Rakhine State. The regime has responded with accelerated airstrikes and artillery bombardments.

Further escalated clashes are anticipated across multiple states and regions over the coming weeks, including areas near border checkpoints with Bangladesh, China, India, and Thailand. As of Dec. 1, the resistance forces have purportedly warned of escalating the operation into a nationwide campaign. Some domestic sources have indicated that the Tatmadaw has reportedly deployed 14,000 troops in Naypyidaw; however, the regime has not confirmed such a development. Additionally, pro-democracy fighters have also carried out bombings and targeted killings across several urban centers since 2021. Further security-related disruptions will likely persist over the coming months. Utility outages can occur on short notice.

Armed Clashes
Tatmadaw troops clash with various EAOs and PDF units in several parts of Myanmar. Since 2021, fighting has generally remained the most intense in the country's eastern and northern areas, particularly in the following locations:

• Bago Region: Kyaukkyi and Mone townships.

• Chin State: Falam, Hakha, Kanpetlet, Matupi, Mindat, and Paletwa townships.

• Kachin State: Hpakant, Mohnyin, Momauk, and Shweku townships.

• Kayah State: Bawlake, Demoso, Hpasawng, Hpruso, Loikaw, Maese, and Shadow townships.

• Kayin State: Kawkareik and Myawaddy townships.

• Magway Region: Magway, Myaing, Pakokku, Pauk, Taungdwingyi, and Yesagyo townships.

• Mon State: Kyaikto, Thaton, and Ye townships.

• Rakhine State: Northern regions, including Buthidaung, Kyauktaw, Maungdaw, Minbya, Pauktaw, Ponnagyun, and Rathedaung townships.

• Sagaing Region: Indaw, Kale, Khin-u, Monywa, Myin-mu, Chaung-U, Pale, Salingyi, Shwebo, and Yinmabin townships.

• Shan State: Kokang Self-Administered Zone, Kutkai, Kyaukme, Lashio, Mabein, Muse, Namhkam, and Pekon townships.

• Tanintharyi Region: Palaw and Thayetchaung townships.

PDF command structures and training have improved, and PDF fighters often attack pro-regime forces and installations. The military usually responds to PDF attacks with artillery and airstrikes to target the armed group's members or villages thought to shelter the fighters. Junta authorities also provide funding and equipment to militias to combat PDF units and other anti-regime groups. Clashes have displaced tens of thousands of residents in the affected areas. Authorities will almost certainly maintain heightened security, including checkpoints and road closures, in areas where fighting occurs. Violence will also likely impact transport, especially along roads connecting townships. Authorities may cut internet and telecommunication services in areas where fighting has intensified. Officials may also impose or tighten curfews on short notice in the regions that experience an increase in armed clashes.

Anti-regime groups have staged bombings and assassinations of junta members or people considered to support the Tatmadaw; they have also sabotaged military and other government facilities in various urban areas, including Yangon, Bago, and Mandalay. Both sides have either deliberately and/or inadvertently targeted critical infrastructure sites. Additionally, some activists have targeted individuals, organizations, and facilities owned by foreign nationals from China and other countries that allegedly support the Tatmadaw. While some explosions in urban areas have caused collateral damage and civilian casualties, most attacks are small-scale and inflict limited injuries and property damage. The blasts will likely continue across Myanmar, possibly prompting authorities to impose heightened security measures and resulting in localized disruptions at the incident sites.

Civil Unrest
Pro-democracy activists continue to hold sporadic demonstrations against the Tatmadaw in major urban centers, such as Yangon and Mandalay. Internet service restrictions have repeatedly delayed the reporting of related rallies. Protest activity often spikes over holidays and other significant dates, such as scheduled court hearings involving cases against National League for Democracy (NLD) leaders. Rallies will likely continue nationwide, especially near government buildings, monuments, and public squares. Military and police personnel may use force, including water cannons, tear gas, rubber bullets, and/or live ammunition, to disperse demonstrators; reports indicate regime forces have also previously arrested non-violent demonstrators since Feb. 2021. Activists often block roadways near demonstration sites to limit the mobility of military personnel.

Disruptions
Utility disruptions and damage to infrastructure have been reported nationwide. Civilians and militant groups opposed to the Tatmadaw may target telecommunications infrastructure, potentially causing localized disruptions. Power outages have occurred in several cities, including Yangon. Electricity disruptions can result in the temporary unavailability of essential services, such as ATMs, petrol stations, and internet and mobile data, as well as severe commercial and transport disruptions. Additionally, armed clashes near border checkpoints, especially near Thailand, may result in temporary shipping and transport-related disruptions.