India: Security measures for Republic Day to prompt disruptions nationwide, especially Delhi, through Jan. 26

Authorities will bolster security in major cities throughout India ahead of the nation's Jan. 26 Republic Day observance. French President Emmanuel Macron will be the chief guest for the main parade in Delhi, which is scheduled for 09:30 Jan. 26. Terrorism and militancy are primary security concerns, given the symbolic significance of the holiday as a celebration of Indian nationalism. Terror warnings, bomb threats, and multiple security scares are likely in the run-up to and during the public holiday. Security forces could conduct preemptive raids to arrest suspected extremists possessing weapons and/or explosives in various cities and towns.

Security will be particularly tight around venues hosting official functions, major government buildings, religious sites, tourist areas, and critical infrastructure, including airports and train stations. Security measures may prompt localized transport and commercial disruptions near sensitive sites. Authorities have warned passengers to allow additional time for security screenings at major airports ahead of and during Republic Day.

The capital city, Delhi, is the site of the largest and most heavily guarded holiday event, a large-scale parade that showcases the country's military strength and cultural diversity. Smaller ceremonies will occur in state capitals and district headquarters nationwide. Major traffic disruptions will occur near Republic Day venues, especially in urban centers. Maoist rebels (also known as Naxalites) and various separatist political and militant groups typically call for boycotts of ceremonies and/or observe shutdown strikes (bandh) on Republic Day to draw attention to their grievances. Farmer groups plan to organize various tractor rallies nationwide. Other organizations will likely hold street marches and public rallies, mainly outside government buildings in state capitals; some of these protests may turn violent.

Regional Security Considerations

National Capital Region
The annual Republic Day parade in Delhi is a potential terrorist target. Authorities will deploy at least 8,000 additional security personnel in the city. The event involves an 8-km (5-mile) procession between the vicinity of Rashtrapati Bhavan (presidential residence) and Lal Qila (Red Fort) via India Gate, with over 50,000 guests, including dignitaries in attendance. Road closures, vehicle searches, and other increased security measures will be imposed at government buildings, markets, transport centers, and other crowded sites throughout the metropolitan area. Authorities have advised commuters to allow additional travel time for metro rail services through Jan. 26. Flight operations at Delhi's Indira Gandhi International Airport (DEL) are suspended 10:20-12:45 daily Jan. 19-26. Airspace curbs will apply in Delhi through Jan. 29; chartered and non-scheduled flights will not be permitted 10:00-13:15 Jan. 19-25, and 06:00-21:00 Jan. 26-29.

Activists may hold demonstrations in the lead-up to and during Republic Day. Well-attended rallies may involve a few thousand participants and may result in isolated clashes. Police will likely attempt to block or disperse any gatherings that occur, potentially resulting in violence. Shipping and transport delays are also possible along all major highways connecting Delhi to neighboring states, especially along sections in the National Capital Region comprising Delhi and parts of Haryana, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh states.

Jammu and Kashmir Union Territory
Separatist militancy is an ongoing concern in parts of the Jammu and Kashmir Union Territory. Despite tightened security in the region, limited unrest and small-scale attacks targeting security personnel are possible ahead of and during Republic Day. Kashmiri separatist organizations have called for a complete shutdown strike in the region Jan. 26; the highest participation typically occurs in the Kashmir Valley due to business and transport service closures in solidarity or as a precaution. Although unlikely, small anti-India protests are possible in Srinagar and large towns. Terrorist attacks - including improvised explosive device (IED) or vehicle-borne IED (VBIED) bombings, grenades, and/or suicide attacks - may occur, particularly targeting military installations and/or convoys in the Kashmir Valley.

Northeast India
Militant groups typically boycott Republic Day celebrations and call for shutdown strikes in the region; varied participation is likely. In some areas, business and transportation disruptions may occur; urban localities are usually the least affected. Multiple ethnic and political groups regularly stage protests and strikes over their demands, and violent civil unrest is possible around the national holiday. Bombings, grenade attacks, and shootings are possible, especially in Assam, Manipur, Nagaland, and Meghalaya states. The risk of attacks causing mass civilian casualties remains minimal.

Maoist-Affected States
An upsurge in violence is probable in areas affected by Maoist insurgencies. Ambushes targeting security personnel and attacks on power, mining, and rail infrastructure may occur. These incidents are most likely to occur in rural parts of Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, and Bihar states.