Australia: Tropical Cyclone Megan tracking southward in the Gulf of Carpentaria off the northeast coast of Northern Territory early March 17 /update 2

Tropical Cyclone Megan is tracking southward in the Gulf of Carpentaria off the northeast coast of the Northern Territory early March 17. As of 12:30 ACST, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 750 km (466 miles) east-southeast of Darwin.

Forecast models indicate that the system will strengthen as it tracks generally southwestward toward the southwest coast of the Gulf of Carperntaria through March 17 before making landfall as a Category 3 tropical cyclone over the Pellew Islands during the morning of March 18 and then moving inland over northeastern Northern Territory late March 18-early March 19. After landfall, the storm is expected to weaken rapidly into a tropical disturbance as it generally tracks west-southwestward into the northeastern Northern Territory through early March 20. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast; changes could occur in the coming days.

As of early March 17, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) has issued a cyclone warning from Alyangula, Northern Territory, to Mornington Island, Queensland, not including Mornington Island, extending inland to Borroloola, McArthur River Mine, and Robinson River, but not including Ngukurr.

Damaging winds gusting up to 120 kph (75 mph) are occurring over eastern Groote Eylandt and are expected to continue through March 17. The core of Megan, with winds of up to 210 kph (130 mph), is forecast to cross the coast between Nathan River in the Northern Territory and the Northern Territory-Queensland border March 18. Winds gusting up to 125 kph (75 mph) will likely develop about the southwestern Gulf of Carpentaria coast, between Nathan River in the Northern Territory and the Northern Territory-Queensland border March 17 as Megan moves closer to the coast. Gales with damaging wind gusts of up to 110 kph (68 mph) are forecast to develop in coastal areas between Numbulwar in the Northern Territory and Mornington Island in Queensland (not including Mornington Island), including Borroloola, March 17 and may extend inland to Robinson River late March 17 if the system moves more quickly to the south.

Intense rainfall is possible about Groote Eylandt and coastal parts of the Carpentaria District through March 17. Heavy rain is ongoing over eastern parts of the Top End, with the heaviest rainfall in coastal and island locations. The heaviest rain will extend further inland into the Carpentaria forecast district and parts of the Gulf Country coast in Queensland March 17. Coastal residents between Nathan River and the Northern Territory/Queensland border are warned of a dangerous storm tide as Megan makes landfall. Tides will likely rise significantly above the normal high tide, with damaging waves and dangerous flooding. Abnormally high tides are likely over the remaining parts of the southern Gulf of Carpentaria over the coming days and will likely rise above the normal high tide at times.

The BOM also maintains a flood watch for the Carpentaria, North Western, Arnhem, Barkly, and Eastern Daly districts in the Northern Territory. A moderate flood warning is in place for the Daly River, and a minor flood warning for the Katherine River.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.