Indonesia: Increased security measures and protests likely to continue nationwide until release of final general election results March 20 /update 3

Increased security measures, protests, and associated disruptions are likely to continue nationwide until at least the announcement of the general election results March 20. Activists plan to stage demonstrations at the Parliamentary Complex in Jakarta from 10:00 daily March 5-10. The purpose of the actions is to demand the House of Representatives call for a parliamentary inquiry into alleged election fraud. Hundreds to thousands of people could join each gathering.

Further related protests by human rights activists and supporters of rival parties are also likely through at least March 20. Previous similar demonstrations have occurred at the Presidential Palace and the House of Representatives. Other potential gathering sites include prominent government buildings, political party offices, sports stadiums, public squares, and thoroughfares. Well-attended gatherings, particularly in Jakarta, will probably draw thousands of participants. Heightened security measures, including deployment of security personnel and interim security barricades and/or traffic diversions, will likely continue, especially in Jakarta and around government buildings. While most public events will probably pass off peacefully, clashes between police and activists, as well as between opposing rival groups, cannot be ruled out. Associated localized transport and business disruptions are likely during these events.

Isolated security incidents, such as small-scale explosions and violence, are possible until at least the release of the official results. Authorities reported instances of of isolated scuffles between supporters of rival legislative candidates in Puncak Jaya Regency, Central Papua, Feb. 14, causing injuries to at least 62 residents. Such occurrences are more likely to transpire in restive regions such as Aceh, East Java, Maluku, Papua, and Southeast Sulawesi.