Indian Ocean: Tropical Cyclone Hidaya tracking west-northwestward toward eastern Tanzania as of early May 4 /update 2

Tropical Cyclone Hidaya is tracking west-northwestward in the western Indian Ocean off the east coast of Tanzania early May 4. As of 05:00 EAT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 204 km (127 miles) southeast of Dar es Salaam.

Forecast models indicate the system will weaken into a moderate tropical storm as it continues generally west-northwestward and makes landfall southeast of Dar es Salaam during the late afternoon-early evening May 4. Hidaya is forecast to weaken into a zone of disturbed weather as it tracks along the coasts of Dar es Salaam and northern Pwani regions through early May 5 before weakening further and dissipating over central Tanga Region the afternoon of May 5. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast; changes could occur in the coming days.

As of early May 4, the Tanzania Meteorological Authority has issued a warning for strong winds and large waves for regions along the Indian Ocean Coast, including Dar es Salaam, Lindi, Mtwara, Pwani, Tanga, and all island regions. Winds gusting up to 60 kph (37 mph) and waves over 2 meters (6.5 feet) are expected in coastal areas. Light rainfall and moderate winds are already impacting southeastern regions, and the severe weather is expected to intensify and spread across other coastal areas over the coming days. Those residing in coastal areas are advised to secure their properties, stock up on essential supplies, and heed any evacuation orders that are issued. Individuals engaged in maritime activities are advised to exercise extreme caution and should consider suspending operations until the storm passes.

The Kenya Meteorological Department has issued a warning for heavy rainfall across much of the country through May 6, with strong winds and rough seas expected in coastal areas. The warning is not solely related to Hidaya, but the storm system will certainly exacerbate the situation. Authorities will likely issue new warnings throughout the system's progression in the coming days.

Kenya and Tanzania are still recovering from the heavy rainfall, flooding, and landslides in recent weeks that have killed hundreds of people. The heavy rainfall and strong winds brought by Hidaya are likely to hamper recovery efforts and result in additional disruptions or fatalities. In advance of the storm, authorities in Kenya have issued evacuation orders to residents living near 178 dams and reservoirs due to the risk of flooding. All schools in the country remain closed until further notice.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible. The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.