Indian Ocean: Tropical Cyclone Hidaya tracking west-northwestward toward eastern Tanzania as of May 3 /update 1

Tropical Cyclone Hidaya is tracking west-northwestward in the western Indian Ocean off the east coast of Tanzania May 3. As of 15:00 EAT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 343 km (213 miles) east-southeast of Dar es Salaam.

Forecast models indicate the system will weaken into a severe tropical storm as it tracks generally west-northwestward toward eastern Tanzania May 3-4, before turning to track northwestward and making landfall south of Dar es Salaam during the late afternoon-early evening May 4. Hidaya is expected to weaken into a moderate tropical storm as it skirts along the eastern coast overnight May 4-5 before dissipating into a zone of disturbed weather as it tracks northwestward into northeastern Tanzania May 5. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast; significant changes could occur in the coming days.

As of May 3, the Tanzania Meteorological Authority has issued a warning for strong winds and large waves for regions along the Indian Ocean Coast, including Dar es Salaam, Lindi, Mtwara, Pwani, Tanga, and all island regions. Winds gusting up to 60 kph (37 mph) and waves over 2 meters (6.5 feet) are expected in coastal areas. Light rainfall and moderate winds are already impacting southeastern regions, and the severe weather is expected to intensify and spread across other coastal areas over the coming days. Those residing in coastal areas are advised to secure their properties, stock up on essential supplies, and heed any evacuation orders that are issued. Individuals engaged in maritime activities are advised to exercise extreme caution and should consider suspending operations until the storm passes.

The Kenya Meteorological Department has issued a warning for heavy rainfall across much of the country through May 6, with strong winds and rough seas expected in coastal areas. The warning is not solely related to Hidaya, but the storm system will certainly exacerbate the situation.

Authorities will likely issue new warnings throughout the system's progression in the coming days.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible. The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.