14 May 2024 | 09:40 PM UTC
Ukraine: Russian forces launch attack across border in northern Kharkiv Oblast, fighting continues in eastern and southern regions as of mid-May /update 253
Russian forces advance into northern Kharkiv Oblast as of mid-May; military operations ongoing in Ukriaine's eastern, southern regions.
Russian forces have advanced across sections of the Russia-Ukraine border in northern Kharkiv Oblast and are attempting to seize more territory in the area as of mid-May. As of May 14, Russian forces were reported advancing in three separate groupings towards the areas of Hoptivka, Hlyboke, Lyptsi, and Vovchansk and reportedly claimed control of several villages, including Strilecha, Pylna, and Borsivika. Early reports indicate the most intense combat is occurring near Vovchansk. On May 13, Ukrainian sources confirmed that Russian forces had breached the first Ukrainian line of defense and acknowledged that Russian troops had moved an estimated 5-6 km (3-4 miles) into Ukrainian territory in some areas.
Outside of the new front, Russian forces have increased their operational tempo by deploying additional personnel and mechanized brigades in eastern Kharkiv and Luhansk regions. Limited offensive operations are ongoing on Ukrainian lines in the regions of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia; artillery strikes target locations in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia on a daily basis and often result in civilian casualties.
Positional combat is ongoing in Eastern and Southern Ukraine as of mid-May. Russian forces maintain an overall offensive posture in the regions of Luhansk, Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia; Ukrainian forces maintain a defensive posture throughout the line of contact and occasionally launch counterattacks on advancing Russian forces. Since mid-March, Ukrainian forces have engaged in a campaign of airstrikes on Russian oil and gas facilities, and armed groups have launched cross-border assaults into Russia's Belgorod and Kursk regions. As of mid-May, the assaults are likely continuing, and Ukrainian airstrikes into Russia continue to threaten Moscow's oil refineries. Ukrainian officials claim that an intensification of Russian offensive operations could lead to further retreats of Ukrainian forces over the short term. Long-range strikes on Ukrainian cities have continued, targeting Dnipro, Kharkiv, Lviv, Odesa, Poltava, and Zaporizhzhia. Artillery strikes have also continued near front-line areas into mid-May.
Russian forces are increasing large-scale coordinated airstrikes on Ukraine's energy infrastructure targeting hydroelectric power plants, gas storage sites, and power stations. Since mid-March, Russian airstrikes caused widespread power outages in several regions, including Kharkiv, Khmelnytskyi, Dnipropetrovsk, and Odesa. Overnight on May 7-8, Russian forces launched 55 missiles and 21 drones targeting the Poltava, Kirovohrad, Zaporizhzhia, Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk and Vinnytsia regions, causing significant damage to three power plants across Ukraine. The previous major strike on Ukraine’s energy facilities occurred on April 11, causing significant damage to power plants in southern Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Lviv; over 200,000 people remained without electricity due to the strike in Kharkiv Region. Further strikes targeting Ukraine's energy infrastructure occurred on March 22, March 25, and April 9. Airstrikes in Ukraine’s eastern city of Kharkiv are likely to increase through late May; notably, two waves of military strikes targeted Kharkiv on May 14, resulting in at least 19 injuries. Ukrainian authorities claim that the country's current air defense capabilities are becoming less effective due to a lack of equipment and ammunition.
Ukraine's air campaign targeting military facilities, oil refineries, and industrial sites is ongoing as of mid-May. Between April 27 and May 2, Ukrainian forces reportedly hit an oil refinery and Russian air force facilities in Ryaza, Voronezh, and Oryol oblasts. Such successful long-range strike capabilities increase the territory threatened by airstrikes and the possible objectives reachable by Kyiv's UAVs. Drone attacks on oil refineries inside Russia have reportedly led to a slump in the country's gasoline production.
Ukraine-based Russian separatist groups are likely engaged in limited combat operations in Russian territory as of mid-May; however, reports covering ongoing combat has decreased since late March, likely due to operational security considerations. Ukrainian missile and drone strikes have also continued to target Russia's Black Sea Fleet, damaging a IC16MII patrol boat on May 7. Previously, Ukrainian attacks damaged the Ropucha-class Azov, Yamal, and Konstantin Olshansky landing ships on March 23-24.
Avoid travel to active conflict zones in the Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions of Ukraine; consider leaving these areas by available ground transport if safe to do so. Exercise extreme caution if operating anywhere in Ukraine. Download the Air Alert mobile application to receive an air-alert notification from the Civil Defense System in your chosen city or region of Ukraine. You should shelter in place if there is fighting or airstrikes in the area. Stay away from windows and exterior walls if officials report incoming rocket or artillery fire. Follow the instructions of local security personnel, especially when instructed to seek refuge in air-raid shelters. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, avoid off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance. Be aware of possible booby traps in areas previously occupied by Russian forces. Regularly charge laptops, tablets, mobile phones, and other business or travel-critical appliances. Unplug electronic equipment that is not connected to surge protectors. Exercise caution when driving in areas affected by power outages. Verify that security systems are operational, including after power is restored.
Russian advances in northern Kharkiv Oblast present the most significant changes to the front lines since the Russian seizure of Avdiivka. Northern Kharkiv had not seen any significant fighting since late 2022 when Russian positions in Kharkiv Oblast collapsed and withdrew from the area; however, the Russian military likely sees a window of opportunity to increase operational pressure on Ukraine before delayed US military aid reaches the front lines. Beyond this, Russian strategic objectives in the area remain unclear; however, Russian forces are likely pursuing at least one of the following goals:
Stretching Ukrainian Logistics: By opening a new front, the Russian military may hope to force Ukraine to reallocate forces from other battle areas to repel the new Russian advances. This, in turn, could facilitate Russian offensive operations in other frontline areas in the summer months. Ukrainian officials, including President Volodymyr Zelensky, publically cite this as the strategic goal of the Russian forces.
Establishing Buffer Zone: Russian officials, including President Vladimir Putin, have publically called for the establishment of a buffer zone in northeastern Ukraine to undermine Ukrainian forces' ability to strike Belgorod. Additionally, should Russian forces continue an additional 10 km (6.2 miles) into Ukraine, they may be able to target Kharkiv city with artillery.
Attack on Kupyansk: Russian forces' immediate objective may be to capture Vovchansk to weaken logistical support to Kupyansk; should this be the case, Russia may forcefully push to seize Kupyansk in the coming weeks. However, Russian forces have reportedly destroyed numerous bridges near Vovchansk. Such a move appears to prioritize limiting Ukrainian forces' ability to retake the territory over planned future advances.
Attack on Kharkiv: Russian officials may hope for the current operation to advance deep enough to directly assault Kharkiv, Ukraine's second-largest city. However, a number of factors seem to undermine this theory; firstly, only about 30,000-35,000 soldiers are reportedly taking part in offensive actions in northern Kharkiv Oblast, a much smaller number than would be needed to besiege a city of almost 1.5 million. Additionally, as with a potential attack on Kupyansk, Russian forces' reported destruction of bridges near Vovchansk limits their ability to expand further.
In the wake of Russian incursions into northern Kharkiv Oblast, Ukraine will almost certainly continue to commit to an active defense strategy through mid-2024, conducting long-range strikes on Russian oil and gas assets, Black Sea Fleet facilities, and oblasts bordering Ukraine with greater frequency, as well as targeting logistical nodes, command posts, and ammunition depots.
Further retreats by Kyiv's military personnel in the regions of Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia are possible through 2024; however, the arrival of Western military aid in the coming weeks should help to temper such losses in the mid-term. Although Russian forces appear to be on an operational pause in many regions, Russian combat activity could increase, particularly near Kupyansk in the Kharkiv Oblast, Kreminna in the Luhansk Region, and Robotyne in the Zaporizhzhia Region. Ukraine's Western allies continue campaigning for further support for Kyiv; however, the coming elections in the EU and US are likely to negatively affect Western governments' capabilities to deliver military aid and support in the measures needed for Ukraine to withstand further major Russian offensives.
Russian forces will likely continue to launch intense airstrikes targeting Ukraine's critical national infrastructure (CNI) as well as military and civilian objectives through mid-2024. It is likely not prohibitively costly for Russia to maintain its current tempo of airstrikes over the coming months. Ukraine has relatively swiftly rebuilt infrastructure damaged during winter 2022-2023; therefore, Russian forces might attempt to use their arsenal to maintain pressure on Ukraine's CNI and stretch Kyiv's capacity rather than launch costly attacks whose effects would be quickly mitigated by Ukraine's emergency teams. Further attacks on Ukraine's energy-related CNI, in particular, cannot be ruled out.
