25 Jun 2024 | 02:06 PM UTC
South Africa: Load shedding likely to occur regularly through at least late 2024 /update 4
Further power cuts likely nationwide in South Africa through at least late 2024.
South Africa will likely remain susceptible to regular load shedding through late 2024 and likely beyond since any additional short-term solutions are unlikely to materialize. This is mostly due to the country's aging infrastructure, with planned maintenance and unplanned breakdowns regularly dropping the maximum supply of energy below its demand. The severity and duration of breakdowns have been accentuated by criminal sabotage and corruption, hampering rehabilitation efforts and the construction of newer power plants. While 2023 was the worst year on record, with the equivalent of over 289 days of load shedding in a year, the first six months of 2024 saw a marked improvement, with just under 100 days without load shedding. This is likely both due to a drop in unplanned issues and the relief provided by the increased energy production of private/independent power producers. Eskom has announced that load shedding beyond stage 8 would require unscheduled power cuts, but the utility has repeatedly assured that the risk of a total blackout remains minimal.
Temporary commercial and communications disruptions are likely while load shedding and unscheduled disruptions are taking place. Cellular, internet, and mobile services could be adversely affected. Traffic disruptions and longer driving times are possible during these periods due to malfunctioning traffic signals. Trains may also experience delays if outages impact signaling devices or overhead wires. Power outages could also result in the temporary unavailability of essential services such as ATMs and filling stations. Water supply outages or decreases in water pressure may occur in areas that rely on electrical pumps for water flow. In cases of longer periods without power, ordinary electricity alternatives could not suffice to maintain continuous output due to increased generator fuel consumption, increased wear, and the likelihood of breakdown, and require longer battery life for appliances.
There is an increased security threat during power outages. Blackouts could adversely affect security protocols, including alarm systems and electronic fences; opportunistic criminal activity increases during electricity outages. Malfunctioning traffic signals increase the risk of accidents at intersections, and the lack of public lighting may elevate the risk of driving at night.
Develop or review business continuity plan (BCP) sections regarding utility outages. Identify business-critical functions that require a power supply. Invest in generators and, if applicable, uninterruptible power supply (UPS) units. Power laptops, tablets, mobile phones, and other business or travel-critical appliances regularly. Download available warning apps covering planned or unplanned power outages and monitor announcements from the utility.
Load shedding requires switching off parts of South Africa's electric grid in a planned and controlled manner due to insufficient capacity or to avoid a countrywide blackout. The higher the stage, the more electricity needs to be saved and the longer the blackouts last. As of June 2024, Eskom has not needed to implement load shedding beyond stage 6.
Stage-1 load shedding: Allows for up to 1,000MW of electricity to be removed from the power grid, leading to power supply cuts in the impacted area three times over a four-day period for two hours at a time, or three times over an eight-day period for four hours at a time.
Stage-2 load shedding: Allows for up to 2,000MW of electricity to be removed from the power grid, leading to power supply cuts in the impacted area six times over a four-day period for two hours at a time, or six times over an eight-day period for four hours at a time.
Stage-3 load shedding: Allows for up to 3,000MW of electricity to be removed from the power grid, leading to power supply cuts in the impacted area nine times over a four-day period for two hours at a time, or nine times over an eight-day period for four hours at a time.
Stage-4 load shedding: Allows for up to 4,000MW to be removed from the power grid, leading to power supply cuts in the impacted area 12 times over a four-day period for two hours at a time, or 12 times over an eight-day period for four hours at a time.
Stage-5 load shedding: Allows for up to 5,000MW to be removed from the power grid, leading to power supply cuts in the impacted area 15 times over a four-day period for two hours at a time, or 15 times over an eight-day period for four hours at a time.
Stage-6 load shedding: Allows for up to 6,000MW to be removed from the power grid, leading to power supply cuts in the impacted area 18 times over a four-day period for four hours at a time.
Stage-7 load shedding: Allows for up to 7,000MW to be removed from the power grid, leading to power supply cuts in the impacted area for 10 hours per day.
Stage-8 load shedding: Allows for up to 8,000MW to be removed from the power grid, leading to power supply cuts in the impacted area for 12 hours per day.
Future power cuts could possibly last for up to 12 hours and above during major supply shortage periods; in that situation, Eskom will likely implement additional unscheduled power cuts.
Authorities in the City of Cape Town are likely to continue implementing support measures and supplying electricity during load shedding periods. Typically, city supply will move the stage down one level from the Eskom-announced load shedding level.
