01 Aug 2024 | 04:38 AM UTC
Bangladesh: Additional protests, tensions likely nationwide through early August following ban on opposition political party /update 15
Further protests, tensions likely across Bangladesh through early August following ban on Jamaat-e-Islami party. Increased security likely.
Further protests and related tensions are likely across Bangladesh through early August. On July 31, authorities banned the opposition Jamaat-e-Islami party (JI) and its student wing for their role in the violence during student-led protests against government job reservations. This ban, along with the potential for further bans on other opposition parties like the Bangladesh National Party (BNP), will almost certainly lead to further disruptive demonstrations. The Students Against Discrimination (SAD) group has called for nationwide demonstrations Aug. 1 as part of their "Remembering Our Heroes” campaign. Additionally, ports such as Chattogram Port are encountering disruptions, including congestion and berthing delays due to the protests.
Authorities are implementing relaxed overnight curfew hours of 20:00-07:00 in Dhaka, Narayanganj, Gazipur, and Narsing districts through Aug. 3. In Chattogram, the overnight curfew hours are 22:00-06:00. Other districts are likely to have similar curfew hours, though variations in relaxation periods are possible. As of Aug. 1, all public and private offices may operate from 09:00 to 17:00. Banks may open from 10:00 to 18:00, with transactions allowed between 10:00 and 16:00. The government will reopen most primary schools from Aug. 4, but will exclude schools in Barishal, Chattogram, Cumilla, Dhaka North, Dhaka South, Gazipur, Khulna, Mymensingh, Narayanganj, Narsingdi, Rajshahi, Rangpur, and Sylhet districts.
Security measures
Ongoing security measures are expected to persist, including a nationwide ban on public gatherings in Dhaka, as well as restrictions on the internet, social media, and messaging. Essential services such as medical and emergency services, electricity, water, telecommunications, and port operations are exempt from these restrictions and may operate without limitation. The unrest has led countries like Australia, Canada, the US, and the UK to advise against all or nonessential travel to Bangladesh until further notice.
Checkpoints are likely to continue at major city entry points, as well as at air and land ports. While there is no specific or imminent terror threat, authorities will likely remain vigilant following the escape of at least nine militants associated with Ansarullah Bangla Team (ABT) and Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB) in a protest-related jailbreak at Narsingdi District Jail on July 20.
Civil unrest
Activists seeking merit-based job reservation reforms have held marches, sit-in protests, general strikes, and road and rail blockades in several areas since early July. Related demonstrations have killed over 200 people and injured a few thousand others, including security personnel. The largest and most disruptive gatherings involving a few thousand protesters have occurred in urban areas, especially Dhaka. Well-attended rallies typically take place in or near university campuses, transportation hubs, public squares, and major intersections. Demonstrators have used projectiles, sharp weapons, firearms, and crude bombs to attack government offices, security personnel, and various vehicles, including police patrol vehicles, private cars, and public buses.
Police have conducted mass arrests and used force - including baton charges, tear gas, rubber bullets, and live ammunition - to disperse gatherings. Additional rallies organized by prominent student unions and opposition parties like the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and Jamaat-e-Islami could attract tens of thousands of people, with the potential to escalate violence. Small-scale explosions, arson, vandalism attacks, riots, armed clashes between rival protest or political groups, and assassination attempts targeting political or student union leaders are possible.
Transport disruptions
The unrest has caused significant disruptions to passenger and freight rail services and vehicular traffic, especially within, to, and from Dhaka. Inter-district bus services in Dhaka have resumed but with limited frequency. Long-distance public buses are resuming, though routes passing Dhaka remain suspended. Bangladesh Railway (BR) will resume passenger rail services on a limited schedule beginning Aug. 1. Metro rail services in Dhaka will likely face prolonged interruptions due to protest-related damage at the Kazipara and Mirpur-10 stations.
Domestic and international flights are available. Due to security concerns and reduced demand, limited flight disruptions are likely at Dhaka's Hazrat Shahjalal International Airport (DAC). Some carriers, like Emirates (EK) and Flydubai (FZ), have revised flight schedules. Additional flight disruptions, including delays and cancellations, could occur.
Related disruptions
Authorities have partially restored mobile and broadband internet services; disruptions to financial services, such as financial transactions, remain possible. Diplomatic facilities, including the US Embassy, may announce suspensions or curtailments of services. Additionally, the government has reported at least 50,000 cyberattacks over the past 10 days, which has purportedly affected at least eight public websites. Further similar cyberattacks remain possible and could impact public services.
Prolonged and/or recurrent blockades may disrupt ground shipping, including at land ports. Protests are likely to cause shipping, port disruptions, and ground operation delays. Sustained curfews may prompt panic buying and stockpiling, potentially creating artificial shortages of essential items like food and fuel.
Avoid all public gatherings due to the potential for increased violence. Depart the area at the first sign of any security disturbance. Confirm ground transport and flight arrangements before departure; do not check out of accommodations without confirming onward travel. Do not attempt to navigate any roadblocks, as protesters could attack vehicles. Plan accordingly for business disruptions. Monitor trusted local media for updates on protests and associated disruptions, as organizers may not announce them in advance. Heed all official instructions, including curfew orders, security and traffic advisories. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations.
On July 21, the Supreme Court of Bangladesh ruled that reservation in civil service jobs for families of veterans who served in the 1971 Bangladesh Liberation War would be reduced from 30 percent to five percent. The reservations for other categories, such as ethnic minorities and physically challenged, were also adjusted downwards after pro-merit protests turned violent in the past week. The demonstrations initially started after a lower court order reinstated job quotas that were reformed in 2018 following similar student protests. Student groups issued a 24-hour deadline to the government to meet their demands, including the release of detained activists, which expired on July 28. Additional unrest over further reduction in reservation and/or wider government policies is likely.
